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KBHM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
34%
AIFS
26%
WN2
18%
HRES
13%
ICON
4%
Consensus
22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 18.6¢Risks 18.55u
VS
ICONNO 81.5¢Risks 81.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +81.45u · ICON −81.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS HRES: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS HRES: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS HRES: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:28+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 07:0610-20 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:28+00:0027.1%33.5%12.1%12.9%3.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:0027.1%33.5%12.1%12.9%3.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:0027.1%33.5%17.7%12.9%3.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0027.1%33.5%17.7%12.9%3.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0027.1%33.5%17.7%12.9%3.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:0025.7%33.5%17.7%12.9%3.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:0025.7%33.5%17.7%12.9%3.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:0025.7%33.5%17.7%12.9%3.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0025.7%33.5%17.7%12.9%3.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast59%80.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend41%79.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble34%78.2°F3.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single26%77.5°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 218%76.8°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
IFS HRES13%75.3°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
ICON4%73.2°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗