KBHM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

64%

58%

51%

44%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.8¢Risks 53.85u

HRESNO 46.2¢Risks 46.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.15u · HRES −46.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	10.3%	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	2.7%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	1.8%	12.8%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	31.7%	37.6%	0.7%	—	21.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	47.1%	25.4%	18.4%	—	27.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	38.0%	27.0%	11.4%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	35.9%	30.9%	6.2%	—	27.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	0.5%	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	29.3%	36.9%	12.9%	—	30.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	22.6%	35.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	23.4%	33.0%	11.3%	—	29.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	25.7%	30.2%	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	29.7%	23.7%	9.8%	—	28.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	30.1%	29.2%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	35.7%	24.0%	7.9%	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	30.8%	26.5%	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	25.9%	21.9%	8.2%	—	15.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	27.9%	18.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	26.4%	23.0%	7.3%	—	19.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	24.0%	22.3%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	20.7%	23.3%	5.7%	0.0%	12.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	21.6%	20.8%	4.5%	—	13.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	24.6%	27.6%	5.5%	21.7%	26.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	24.8%	5.3%	—	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	64%	79.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	80.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	58%	80.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	78.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	77.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261021-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 79°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗