KBHM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

64%

58%

51%

44%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.8¢Risks 53.85u

HRESNO 46.2¢Risks 46.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.15u · HRES −46.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00	76.2%	77.3%	75.4%	38.8%	21.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	76.2%	59.9%	63.4%	38.8%	21.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	76.2%	59.9%	63.4%	38.8%	21.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	76.2%	59.9%	63.4%	38.8%	21.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	51.4%	59.9%	63.4%	38.8%	21.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	51.4%	59.9%	63.3%	38.8%	21.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	51.4%	64.0%	63.3%	38.8%	21.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	51.4%	64.0%	63.3%	38.8%	21.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	51.4%	64.0%	63.3%	38.8%	21.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	51.4%	64.0%	63.3%	38.8%	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	51.4%	64.0%	63.3%	38.8%	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	51.4%	64.0%	63.3%	38.8%	21.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	58.5%	64.0%	63.3%	43.7%	57.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	58.5%	64.0%	63.3%	43.7%	57.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	58.5%	64.0%	63.3%	43.7%	57.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	58.5%	64.0%	63.3%	43.7%	57.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	58.5%	64.0%	63.3%	43.7%	57.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	58.5%	64.0%	64.0%	43.7%	57.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	58.5%	64.0%	64.0%	43.7%	57.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	58.5%	64.0%	64.0%	43.7%	57.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	50.7%	64.0%	64.0%	43.7%	57.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	50.7%	64.0%	64.0%	43.7%	57.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	50.7%	64.0%	64.0%	43.7%	57.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	64%	79.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	80.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	58%	80.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	78.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	77.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261021-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 79°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗