KBHM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

23%

21%

17%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 21.3¢Risks 21.30u

HRESNO 78.7¢Risks 78.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.70u · HRES −78.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	27.8%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	0.1%	17.1%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	0.7%	14.1%	0.1%	—	6.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	3.6%	5.9%	2.8%	—	3.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	1.3%	5.2%	0.6%	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	0.6%	3.3%	0.4%	—	1.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.0%	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.2%	3.8%	0.1%	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.1%	3.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.5%	2.8%	0.2%	0.9%	0.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	3.1%	—	—	0.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	81.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	78.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	77.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	17%	73.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	72.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261024-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 83°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗