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KBHM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
37%
WN2
23%
AIFS
21%
ICON
17%
HRES
5%
Consensus
26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 21.3¢Risks 21.30u
VS
HRESNO 78.7¢Risks 78.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.70u · HRES −78.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:0010-17 11:3210-17 19:5610-18 03:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:0045.8%37.8%39.2%9.7%7.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:0045.8%37.8%39.2%9.7%7.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:0045.8%37.8%39.2%9.7%7.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:0018.3%37.8%39.2%9.7%7.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:0018.3%37.8%39.2%9.6%7.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:0018.3%37.4%39.2%9.6%7.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:0018.3%37.4%39.2%9.6%7.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:0018.3%37.4%25.9%9.6%7.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:0018.3%37.4%25.9%9.6%7.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:0018.3%37.4%25.9%9.6%7.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:0018.3%37.4%25.9%9.6%7.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:0017.8%37.4%25.9%5.2%17.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:0017.8%37.4%25.9%5.2%17.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:0017.8%37.4%25.9%5.2%17.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:0017.8%37.4%25.9%5.2%17.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:0017.8%37.4%22.9%5.2%17.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:0017.8%37.4%22.9%5.2%17.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:0017.8%37.4%22.9%5.2%17.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:0017.8%37.4%22.9%5.2%17.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:0020.7%37.4%22.9%5.2%17.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:0020.7%37.4%22.9%5.2%17.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:0020.7%37.4%22.9%5.2%17.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%83.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble37%81.6°F2.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 223%78.7°F5.1°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single21%77.8°F5.8°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
ICON17%73.1°F9.9°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES5%72.0°F6.5°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261024-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 83°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗