KBHM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

25%

25%

23%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 22.6¢Risks 22.60u

HRESNO 77.4¢Risks 77.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +77.40u · HRES −77.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	20.1%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	19.8%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	0.1%	14.7%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	7.7%	10.9%	0.2%	—	7.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	6.6%	6.2%	1.0%	—	5.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	3.6%	5.8%	2.4%	—	4.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	5.3%	10.8%	2.7%	7.8%	5.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	10.2%	—	—	4.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	36%	76.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	76.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	77.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	70.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗