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KBHM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
36%
AIFS
25%
WN2
25%
EPS
23%
HRES
9%
Consensus
26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 22.6¢Risks 22.60u
VS
HRESNO 77.4¢Risks 77.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +77.40u · HRES −77.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.2% · 2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.2% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.2% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.2% · 2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.3% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.3% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.3% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.3% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.3% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.3% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.3% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.3% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:0010-18 11:0210-18 19:2710-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:0020.7%38.2%26.6%6.2%8.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:0020.7%38.2%26.6%6.2%8.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:0020.7%38.2%26.6%6.2%8.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:0020.7%38.2%26.6%6.2%8.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:0028.9%38.2%26.6%6.2%8.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:0028.9%38.2%26.6%6.2%8.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:0028.9%22.9%26.6%6.2%8.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:0028.9%22.9%26.6%6.2%8.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:0028.9%22.9%22.3%6.2%8.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:0028.9%22.9%22.3%6.2%8.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:0028.9%22.9%22.3%6.2%8.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:0019.2%22.9%22.3%8.9%36.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:0019.2%22.9%22.3%8.9%36.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:0019.2%22.9%22.3%8.9%36.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:0019.2%22.9%22.3%8.9%36.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:0019.2%22.9%22.3%8.9%36.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:0019.2%22.9%24.7%8.9%36.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:0019.2%22.9%24.7%8.9%36.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:0019.2%22.9%24.7%8.9%36.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:0024.9%22.9%24.7%8.9%36.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:0024.9%22.9%24.7%8.9%36.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:0024.9%22.9%24.7%8.9%36.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:0024.9%22.9%24.7%8.9%36.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%80.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON36%76.0°F10.0°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single25%75.6°F5.8°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 225%76.0°F5.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble23%77.2°F3.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES9%70.8°F6.5°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗