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KBHM / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
48%
HRES
45%
AIFS
42%
EPS
28%
ICON
7%
Consensus
37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 27.7¢Risks 27.70u
VS
ICONNO 72.3¢Risks 72.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.30u · ICON −72.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 11.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.2%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.4%———3.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:008.7%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0059.0%———27.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0026.5%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0044.2%———16.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:005.6%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0030.6%———17.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:008.5%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0026.5%———22.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0027.4%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0024.4%———24.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0042.1%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0034.9%———29.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0034.5%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0041.5%———31.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0044.7%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0042.0%———32.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0033.7%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0035.5%———31.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0020.8%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0033.5%———23.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0023.5%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0018.9%—23.6%—24.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0026.0%—32.7%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0027.7%———23.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0027.3%—0.5%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0030.7%—24.9%—19.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0026.6%—1.5%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0028.9%—8.5%—17.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0024.2%—13.3%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0021.8%0.1%26.0%11.8%19.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0018.4%—27.8%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 248%80.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES45%79.7°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single42%79.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble28%78.9°F2.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON7%65.7°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261027-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 81°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗