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KBHM / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
48%
HRES
45%
AIFS
42%
EPS
28%
ICON
7%
Consensus
37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 27.7¢Risks 27.70u
VS
ICONNO 72.3¢Risks 72.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.30u · ICON −72.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00ICON: 7.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00ICON: 7.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 7.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 7.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 7.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:0042.4%28.4%48.4%45.1%7.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0042.4%28.4%48.4%45.1%7.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0042.4%28.4%48.4%45.1%7.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0042.4%28.4%48.4%45.1%7.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:0042.4%28.4%48.4%45.1%7.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 248%80.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES45%79.7°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single42%79.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble28%78.9°F2.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON7%65.7°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261027-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 81°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗