KBIL / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

59%

58%

34%

32%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 47.7¢Risks 47.65u

EPSNO 52.3¢Risks 52.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +52.35u · EPS −52.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	49.4%	—	—	11.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	6.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	—	—	7.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	12.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	11.3%	8.2%	60.1%	—	15.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	9.3%	42.4%	45.4%	—	18.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	66.3%	75.8%	88.5%	—	21.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	43.4%	3.9%	59.1%	—	42.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	18.4%	39.6%	81.6%	—	19.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	17.8%	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	42.7%	0.0%	3.4%	—	5.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	53.8%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	28.7%	0.3%	0.0%	—	1.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.2%	1.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.0%	6.1%	34.0%	21.2%	5.5%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.1%	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	0.1%	18.3%	6.6%	0.0%	19.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	24.0%	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	37.4%	63.7%	53.5%	35.2%	57.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	40.5%	57.2%	69.6%	—	60.7%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	56.2%	76.4%	74.4%	53.7%	56.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	32.5%	87.2%	83.4%	—	51.3%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	35.6%	84.3%	70.5%	44.6%	51.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	33.8%	78.9%	39.0%	—	48.6%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	33.1%	77.8%	38.6%	30.5%	51.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	13.6%	33.8%	81.9%	59.0%	—	42.5%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	33.1%	79.7%	57.9%	27.6%	37.6%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	30.9%	69.0%	59.8%	—	41.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	64%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	0.1325
WeatherNext 2	59%	80.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	0.1665
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	58%	80.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	0.1781
National Blend	43%	79.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	0.3272
ICON	34%	78.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.4422
IFS Ensemble	32%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.4665

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261002-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 01 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗