KBIL / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

59%

58%

34%

32%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 47.7¢Risks 47.65u

EPSNO 52.3¢Risks 52.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +52.35u · EPS −52.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T15:18:28+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	29.1%	66.6%	33.5%
2026-10-01T16:03:44+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	29.1%	66.6%	33.5%
2026-10-01T16:48:52+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	29.1%	66.6%	33.5%
2026-10-01T17:34:00+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	23.4%	66.6%	33.5%
2026-10-01T18:19:06+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	23.4%	66.6%	33.5%
2026-10-01T19:04:10+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	23.4%	66.6%	33.5%
2026-10-01T19:49:17+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	23.4%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-01T20:34:27+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	23.4%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-01T21:19:33+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	23.4%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-01T22:04:44+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	23.4%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-01T22:49:50+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	23.4%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-01T23:34:55+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	19.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T00:20:01+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	19.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T01:05:12+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	19.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T01:50:31+00:00	56.9%	31.7%	19.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T02:35:42+00:00	56.9%	31.7%	19.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T03:21:14+00:00	56.9%	31.7%	19.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T04:06:27+00:00	56.9%	31.7%	19.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T04:51:34+00:00	56.9%	31.7%	19.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T05:36:56+00:00	56.9%	31.7%	59.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T06:22:04+00:00	56.9%	31.7%	59.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T07:07:18+00:00	56.9%	31.7%	59.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T07:52:25+00:00	57.8%	31.7%	59.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T08:37:34+00:00	57.8%	31.7%	59.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T09:22:39+00:00	57.8%	31.7%	59.2%	63.6%	33.5%
2026-10-02T10:07:45+00:00	57.8%	31.7%	59.2%	63.6%	33.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	64%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	0.1325
WeatherNext 2	59%	80.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	0.1665
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	58%	80.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	0.1781
National Blend	43%	79.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	0.3272
ICON	34%	78.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.4422
IFS Ensemble	32%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.4665

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261002-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 01 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗