KBIL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

43%

40%

30%

15%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

ICONNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +57.90u · ICON −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	23.4%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	9.9%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	36.9%	0.3%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	18.9%	40.6%	—	37.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	23.4%	28.3%	43.9%	—	31.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	15.9%	23.0%	48.4%	—	29.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	15.7%	25.1%	33.8%	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	1.1%	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	15.1%	17.2%	34.6%	—	39.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	17.2%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	33.0%	29.7%	41.8%	—	43.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	27.6%	32.6%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	16.5%	34.8%	33.9%	—	47.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	16.4%	36.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	24.3%	39.8%	38.8%	—	54.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	30.7%	41.6%	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	25.5%	41.3%	40.3%	0.0%	62.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	20.6%	29.6%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	21.5%	28.9%	41.9%	—	68.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	39.3%	30.4%	44.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	36.5%	29.8%	41.3%	15.1%	66.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	24.8%	26.9%	39.8%	—	68.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	21.0%	24.0%	46.0%	17.3%	66.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	40.3%	27.6%	40.3%	—	68.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	70.7%	24.5%	44.2%	18.2%	73.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	76.4%	35.2%	56.0%	—	72.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	69.7%	29.0%	59.4%	25.0%	69.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	74.6%	37.0%	58.2%	—	77.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	70%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0930
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
WeatherNext 2	43%	74.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.3226
IFS Ensemble	40%	73.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3612
AIFS Single	30%	72.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4942
National Blend	25%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.5595
ICON	15%	70.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.7276

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261017-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗