KBIL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

43%

40%

30%

15%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

ICONNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +57.90u · ICON −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:28:01+00:00	35.3%	23.0%	31.3%	44.4%	60.4%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00	35.3%	23.0%	30.6%	44.4%	60.4%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00	35.3%	23.0%	30.6%	44.4%	60.4%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	35.3%	23.0%	30.6%	44.4%	60.4%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	40.1%	23.0%	30.6%	44.4%	60.4%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	40.1%	23.0%	30.6%	44.4%	60.4%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	40.1%	23.0%	30.6%	44.4%	60.4%
2026-10-11T03:45:23+00:00	40.1%	23.0%	30.6%	44.4%	60.4%
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00	40.1%	23.0%	30.6%	44.4%	60.4%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00	40.1%	23.0%	30.6%	44.4%	60.4%
2026-10-11T06:01:18+00:00	40.1%	23.0%	30.6%	44.4%	60.4%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00	40.1%	23.0%	30.6%	44.4%	60.4%
2026-10-11T07:32:37+00:00	40.3%	23.0%	30.6%	34.1%	60.4%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	40.3%	23.0%	30.6%	34.1%	60.4%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	40.3%	23.0%	30.6%	34.1%	60.4%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	40.3%	23.0%	30.6%	34.1%	60.4%
2026-10-11T10:34:17+00:00	40.3%	23.0%	30.6%	34.1%	60.4%
2026-10-11T11:20:13+00:00	40.3%	12.6%	26.8%	34.1%	60.4%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	40.3%	12.6%	26.8%	34.1%	60.4%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	40.3%	12.6%	26.8%	34.1%	60.4%
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	39.5%	12.6%	26.8%	34.1%	60.4%
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	38.8%	12.9%	26.9%	34.0%	60.4%
2026-10-11T15:12:08+00:00	38.8%	12.0%	26.9%	34.0%	60.4%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	38.8%	12.0%	26.9%	34.0%	60.4%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	38.8%	12.0%	26.9%	34.0%	60.4%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	38.8%	12.0%	31.4%	34.0%	60.4%
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	38.8%	12.0%	31.4%	34.0%	60.4%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	38.8%	12.0%	31.4%	34.0%	60.4%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	19.2%	12.0%	31.4%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	19.2%	12.0%	31.4%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	19.2%	12.0%	31.4%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	19.2%	12.0%	31.4%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	19.2%	12.0%	31.4%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	19.3%	12.0%	20.8%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	19.3%	12.0%	20.8%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	19.3%	12.0%	20.8%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	20.9%	12.0%	20.8%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	20.9%	12.0%	20.8%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	20.9%	12.0%	20.8%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-12T04:01:57+00:00	20.9%	12.0%	20.8%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	20.9%	12.0%	20.8%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	20.9%	12.0%	30.7%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	20.9%	12.0%	30.7%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	20.9%	12.0%	30.7%	39.2%	48.3%
2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00	21.9%	12.0%	30.7%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	21.9%	12.0%	30.7%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	21.9%	12.0%	30.7%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	21.9%	12.0%	30.7%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	21.9%	12.0%	30.7%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00	21.9%	12.0%	23.8%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	21.9%	17.0%	23.8%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	21.9%	17.0%	23.8%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00	22.5%	17.0%	23.8%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	22.6%	17.0%	23.9%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T15:27:44+00:00	22.6%	17.0%	23.9%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	22.6%	11.9%	23.9%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	22.6%	11.9%	25.4%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	22.6%	11.9%	25.4%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	22.6%	11.9%	25.4%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	22.6%	11.9%	25.4%	37.1%	34.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	25.1%	11.9%	25.4%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	25.1%	11.9%	25.4%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	25.1%	11.9%	25.4%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	25.1%	11.9%	25.4%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	25.1%	11.9%	32.1%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	25.1%	11.9%	32.1%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	25.1%	11.9%	32.1%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	25.1%	11.9%	32.1%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	27.1%	11.9%	32.1%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	27.1%	11.9%	32.1%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	27.1%	11.9%	32.1%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T04:16:23+00:00	27.1%	11.9%	32.1%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	27.1%	11.9%	30.3%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	27.1%	11.9%	30.3%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	27.1%	11.9%	30.3%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	27.1%	11.9%	30.3%	47.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00	27.2%	11.9%	30.3%	47.6%	25.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	27.2%	11.9%	30.3%	47.6%	25.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	27.2%	11.9%	30.3%	47.6%	25.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	27.2%	11.9%	30.3%	47.6%	25.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:25+00:00	27.2%	19.0%	29.6%	47.6%	25.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	27.2%	19.0%	29.6%	47.6%	25.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	27.2%	19.0%	29.6%	47.6%	25.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	27.2%	19.0%	29.6%	47.6%	25.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	38.9%	19.0%	29.5%	47.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	38.9%	18.4%	29.5%	47.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	38.9%	18.4%	29.5%	47.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	38.9%	18.4%	29.5%	47.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	38.9%	18.4%	31.4%	47.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	38.9%	18.4%	31.4%	47.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	38.9%	18.4%	31.4%	47.6%	26.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	31.4%	47.6%	47.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	31.4%	47.6%	47.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	31.4%	47.6%	47.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	31.4%	47.6%	47.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	31.4%	57.1%	47.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	47.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T03:00:04+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	32.4%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	31.3%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	20.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	31.3%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	20.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	31.3%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	20.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	31.3%	18.4%	25.9%	57.1%	20.3%
2026-10-14T10:34:35+00:00	31.3%	18.4%	25.9%	58.9%	20.3%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	31.3%	25.2%	23.8%	58.9%	20.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	31.3%	25.2%	23.8%	58.9%	20.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	31.3%	25.2%	23.8%	58.9%	20.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	28.0%	25.2%	23.8%	58.9%	20.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	28.0%	25.4%	23.8%	58.9%	20.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	28.0%	26.7%	23.8%	58.9%	20.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	28.0%	26.7%	23.8%	58.9%	20.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	28.0%	26.7%	23.8%	58.9%	20.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	28.0%	26.7%	24.7%	58.9%	20.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	28.0%	26.7%	24.7%	58.9%	20.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	28.0%	26.7%	24.7%	58.9%	20.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:40+00:00	35.5%	26.7%	24.7%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	35.5%	26.7%	24.7%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	35.5%	26.7%	24.7%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	35.5%	26.7%	24.7%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	35.5%	26.7%	24.7%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	35.5%	26.6%	36.1%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	35.5%	26.6%	36.1%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	35.5%	26.6%	36.1%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	34.6%	26.6%	36.1%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	34.6%	26.6%	36.1%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	34.6%	26.6%	36.1%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:35+00:00	34.6%	26.6%	36.1%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	34.6%	26.6%	36.1%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	34.6%	26.6%	42.9%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	34.6%	26.6%	42.9%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	34.6%	26.6%	42.9%	60.6%	30.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00	29.5%	26.6%	42.9%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	29.5%	26.6%	42.9%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	29.5%	26.6%	42.9%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	29.5%	26.6%	42.9%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	29.5%	26.6%	39.8%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	29.5%	26.6%	39.8%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	29.5%	38.2%	39.8%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	29.5%	38.2%	39.8%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	22.3%	38.3%	39.8%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	22.3%	38.3%	39.8%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	22.3%	39.0%	39.8%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	22.3%	39.0%	39.8%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	22.3%	39.0%	33.7%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	22.3%	39.0%	33.7%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	22.3%	39.0%	33.7%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	22.3%	39.0%	33.7%	67.8%	22.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	27.0%	39.0%	33.7%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	27.0%	39.0%	33.7%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	27.0%	39.0%	33.7%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	27.0%	39.0%	33.7%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	27.0%	39.0%	42.3%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	27.0%	39.0%	42.3%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	27.0%	39.0%	42.3%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	32.0%	39.0%	42.3%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	32.0%	39.0%	42.3%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	32.0%	39.0%	42.3%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	32.0%	39.0%	42.3%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T04:24:58+00:00	32.0%	39.0%	42.3%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	32.0%	39.0%	68.6%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	32.0%	39.0%	68.6%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	32.0%	39.0%	68.6%	72.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	24.0%	39.0%	68.6%	72.1%	24.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	24.0%	39.0%	68.6%	72.1%	24.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	24.0%	39.0%	68.6%	72.1%	24.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	24.0%	39.0%	68.6%	72.1%	24.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	24.0%	39.0%	68.6%	72.1%	24.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	24.0%	40.7%	44.5%	72.1%	24.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	24.0%	40.7%	44.5%	72.1%	24.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	24.0%	40.7%	44.5%	72.1%	24.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	28.1%	40.7%	44.5%	71.4%	24.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	28.0%	40.7%	44.5%	71.4%	24.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	28.0%	40.0%	44.5%	71.4%	24.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	28.0%	39.9%	44.5%	71.4%	24.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	28.0%	39.9%	44.5%	71.4%	24.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	28.0%	39.9%	51.4%	71.4%	24.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	28.0%	39.9%	51.4%	71.4%	24.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	28.0%	39.9%	51.4%	71.4%	24.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	24.7%	39.9%	51.4%	71.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	24.7%	39.9%	51.4%	71.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	24.7%	39.9%	51.4%	71.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	24.7%	39.9%	51.4%	71.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	24.7%	39.9%	51.4%	69.5%	14.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	24.7%	39.9%	32.8%	69.5%	14.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	24.7%	39.9%	32.8%	69.5%	14.7%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	24.7%	39.9%	32.8%	69.5%	14.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	29.7%	39.9%	32.8%	69.5%	14.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	29.7%	39.9%	32.8%	69.5%	14.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	29.7%	39.9%	32.8%	69.5%	14.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	29.7%	39.9%	32.8%	69.5%	14.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:28+00:00	29.7%	39.9%	32.8%	69.5%	14.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	29.7%	39.9%	43.2%	69.5%	14.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	29.7%	39.9%	43.2%	69.5%	14.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	29.7%	39.9%	43.2%	69.5%	14.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	70%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0930
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
WeatherNext 2	43%	74.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.3226
IFS Ensemble	40%	73.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3612
AIFS Single	30%	72.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4942
National Blend	25%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.5595
ICON	15%	70.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.7276

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261017-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗