KBIL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

44%

37%

29%

14%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 30.4¢Risks 30.45u

ICONNO 69.5¢Risks 69.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +69.55u · ICON −69.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	1.1%	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	18.9%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	0.1%	83.7%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	81.1%	82.5%	0.1%	—	73.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	58.7%	86.5%	30.4%	—	71.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	68.4%	88.2%	29.6%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	72.6%	58.7%	40.5%	—	57.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	86.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	33.0%	79.9%	5.8%	—	50.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	1.0%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	22.1%	36.3%	9.4%	—	49.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	71.3%	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	18.4%	45.4%	23.7%	—	45.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	21.0%	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	32.1%	36.6%	21.0%	—	48.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	28.2%	31.7%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	33.0%	37.8%	19.7%	—	46.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	23.6%	44.7%	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	33.1%	44.5%	13.1%	0.0%	42.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	34.6%	59.0%	0.0%	—	38.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	27.0%	59.2%	18.3%	54.6%	35.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	17.5%	59.5%	11.4%	—	31.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	29.8%	55.0%	8.5%	—	42.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	22.8%	57.7%	12.8%	—	46.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	19.1%	58.0%	11.3%	50.0%	39.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	30.0%	58.3%	21.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	35.8%	62.8%	13.8%	62.8%	54.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	32.5%	45.5%	12.0%	—	45.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	31.7%	45.3%	17.1%	78.6%	42.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	38.6%	50.0%	28.1%	—	64.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	47%	67.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.2237
IFS HRES	44%	66.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.1901
AIFS Single	37%	66.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1376
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.1076
IFS Ensemble	29%	64.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0824
ICON	14%	63.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0185

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗