KBIL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

44%

37%

29%

14%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 30.4¢Risks 30.45u

ICONNO 69.5¢Risks 69.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +69.55u · ICON −69.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00	47.1%	43.8%	18.3%	84.0%	6.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	47.1%	43.8%	18.3%	84.0%	6.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	47.1%	43.8%	18.3%	84.0%	6.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	47.1%	43.8%	18.3%	84.0%	6.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	47.1%	43.8%	18.3%	84.0%	6.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00	47.1%	43.8%	23.4%	84.0%	6.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	47.1%	43.0%	23.4%	84.0%	6.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	47.1%	43.0%	23.4%	84.0%	6.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00	55.7%	43.0%	23.4%	84.0%	6.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	55.7%	43.0%	23.4%	84.0%	6.5%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	55.7%	43.0%	23.4%	84.0%	6.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	55.7%	36.4%	23.4%	84.0%	6.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	55.7%	36.4%	43.6%	84.0%	6.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	55.7%	36.4%	43.6%	84.0%	6.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	55.7%	36.4%	43.6%	84.0%	6.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	55.7%	36.4%	43.6%	84.0%	6.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	50.7%	36.4%	43.6%	74.1%	83.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	50.7%	36.4%	43.6%	74.1%	83.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	50.7%	36.4%	43.6%	74.1%	83.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	50.7%	36.4%	43.6%	74.1%	83.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	50.7%	36.4%	28.0%	74.1%	83.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	50.7%	36.4%	28.0%	74.1%	83.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	50.7%	36.4%	28.0%	74.1%	83.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	50.7%	36.4%	28.0%	74.1%	83.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	38.1%	36.4%	28.0%	74.1%	83.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	38.1%	36.4%	28.0%	74.1%	83.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	38.1%	36.4%	28.0%	74.1%	83.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:35+00:00	44.4%	42.4%	23.3%	51.4%	53.4%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	44.4%	42.4%	23.3%	51.4%	53.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	44.4%	42.4%	28.8%	51.4%	53.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	44.4%	42.4%	28.8%	51.4%	53.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	44.4%	42.4%	28.8%	51.4%	53.4%
2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00	40.6%	42.4%	28.8%	46.0%	35.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	40.6%	42.4%	28.8%	46.0%	35.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	40.6%	42.4%	28.8%	46.0%	35.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	40.6%	42.4%	28.8%	46.0%	35.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	40.6%	42.4%	28.6%	46.0%	35.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	40.6%	42.4%	28.6%	46.0%	35.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	40.6%	34.6%	28.6%	46.0%	35.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	40.6%	34.6%	28.6%	46.0%	35.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	41.4%	34.8%	28.6%	46.0%	35.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	41.4%	34.8%	28.6%	46.0%	35.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	41.4%	35.7%	28.6%	46.0%	35.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	41.4%	35.7%	28.6%	46.0%	35.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	41.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	35.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	41.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	35.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	41.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	35.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	41.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	35.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:58+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	31.4%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	36.3%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	36.3%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	36.4%	35.7%	36.3%	46.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	38.1%	35.7%	36.3%	46.0%	38.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	38.1%	35.7%	36.3%	46.0%	38.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	38.1%	35.7%	36.3%	46.0%	38.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	38.1%	35.7%	36.3%	46.0%	38.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	38.1%	35.7%	36.3%	46.0%	38.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	38.1%	30.9%	35.0%	46.0%	38.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	38.1%	30.9%	35.0%	46.0%	38.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	38.1%	30.9%	35.0%	46.0%	38.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	28.0%	30.9%	35.0%	51.8%	38.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	28.0%	31.0%	35.0%	51.8%	38.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:28+00:00	28.0%	29.6%	26.7%	46.4%	40.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	28.0%	29.6%	31.7%	46.4%	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	28.0%	29.6%	31.7%	46.4%	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	28.0%	29.6%	31.7%	46.4%	40.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	26.1%	29.6%	31.7%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	26.1%	29.6%	31.7%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	26.1%	29.6%	31.7%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	26.1%	29.6%	31.7%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	26.1%	29.6%	31.7%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	26.1%	27.6%	25.9%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	26.1%	27.6%	25.9%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	26.1%	27.6%	25.9%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	28.6%	27.6%	25.9%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	28.6%	28.0%	25.9%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:15+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	25.9%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	25.9%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	39.4%	29.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:41+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	22.9%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	32.6%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	32.6%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	32.6%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	28.6%	28.2%	32.6%	38.5%	24.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00	30.6%	28.2%	32.6%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	30.6%	28.2%	32.6%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	30.6%	28.2%	32.6%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00	30.6%	28.2%	32.6%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00	30.6%	27.1%	25.7%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	30.6%	27.1%	25.7%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	30.6%	27.1%	25.7%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	30.6%	27.1%	25.7%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	32.4%	27.7%	25.7%	50.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:05+00:00	32.4%	27.7%	25.7%	50.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	32.4%	28.7%	25.7%	50.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	32.4%	28.7%	25.7%	50.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	32.4%	28.7%	32.8%	50.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	32.4%	28.7%	32.8%	50.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	32.4%	28.7%	32.8%	50.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	35.2%	28.7%	32.8%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	35.2%	28.7%	32.8%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	35.2%	28.7%	32.8%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	35.2%	28.7%	32.8%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	35.2%	28.7%	32.8%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	35.2%	28.7%	25.7%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	35.2%	28.7%	25.7%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	35.2%	28.7%	25.7%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	37.1%	28.7%	25.7%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	37.1%	28.7%	25.7%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	37.1%	28.7%	25.7%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	37.1%	28.7%	25.7%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:00	37.1%	28.7%	25.7%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	37.1%	28.7%	47.3%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	37.1%	28.7%	47.3%	43.6%	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	37.1%	28.7%	47.3%	43.6%	13.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	47%	67.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.2237
IFS HRES	44%	66.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.1901
AIFS Single	37%	66.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1376
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.1076
IFS Ensemble	29%	64.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0824
ICON	14%	63.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0185

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗