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KBIL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 12:42 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
10%
EPS
5%
AIFS
4%
ICON
4%
WN2
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 5.6¢Risks 1.40u
VS
WN2NO 94.4¢Risks 23.60u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.60u · WN2 −23.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 43.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 57.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 51.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 5.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 5.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 12:0010-12 06:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:009.3%————13.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0016.5%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0031.1%————18.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0022.8%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:003.3%————7.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0016.9%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.3%————7.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0035.4%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:004.7%————5.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.6%————9.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.3%————7.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:003.9%————17.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0014.5%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0010.5%————8.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0016.7%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0025.2%————12.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:004.4%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0010.0%————14.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:006.4%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.4%—0.1%——10.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:001.5%—53.1%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:001.2%————25.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:002.5%—57.0%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:002.1%—3.1%——20.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:002.1%—30.3%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:004.2%0.0%48.6%——33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:006.2%—2.0%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:004.5%43.0%45.1%0.0%—33.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:001.9%—43.6%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:004.2%18.9%50.0%5.3%—29.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:002.9%—25.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:002.5%25.1%51.5%4.6%—17.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.7%—31.2%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:001.1%27.4%16.4%7.5%—15.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:003.4%—45.1%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.9%4.5%33.8%0.2%—10.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.4%0.0%7.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.9%1.8%4.7%0.4%—9.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.9%21.5%4.8%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.5%1.1%6.6%1.8%—6.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.4%1.3%4.4%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.4%2.7%3.5%1.2%—6.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.1%1.9%2.4%——4.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%2.4%3.2%0.8%—5.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.1%1.0%4.2%——5.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.1%1.9%3.8%0.3%0.0%3.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%1.8%7.1%0.0%—2.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.9%6.5%0.4%5.1%1.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%5.8%0.1%—1.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.8%4.0%0.1%—2.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%4.0%0.1%—2.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%3.5%0.1%2.2%1.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%3.0%0.2%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.5%3.2%0.1%3.2%1.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%0.9%0.0%—0.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.6%0.0%5.7%0.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%0.6%0.1%—1.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES10%67.0°F5.0°F2026-10-15 12:000.0094
NWS forecast8%68.0°F3.9°F2026-10-16 02:000.0064
IFS Ensemble5%64.8°F5.4°F2026-10-16 00:000.0029
AIFS Single4%66.2°F4.3°F2026-10-16 00:000.0019
ICON4%66.3°F4.0°F2026-10-16 00:000.0012
WeatherNext 22%66.2°F3.4°F2026-10-16 00:000.0002
National Blend<1%65.0°F3.3°F2026-10-16 06:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261019-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗