KBIL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 5.6¢Risks 1.40u

WN2NO 94.4¢Risks 23.60u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.60u · WN2 −23.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00	12.6%	15.5%	2.1%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	12.6%	15.5%	2.1%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	12.6%	15.5%	2.1%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	12.6%	15.5%	2.1%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	12.6%	15.5%	2.1%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00	12.6%	15.5%	2.6%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	12.6%	14.5%	2.6%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	12.6%	14.5%	2.6%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00	17.6%	14.5%	2.6%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	17.7%	14.5%	2.7%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	17.7%	14.5%	2.7%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	17.7%	11.2%	2.7%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	17.7%	11.2%	8.6%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	17.7%	11.2%	8.6%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	17.7%	11.2%	8.6%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	17.7%	11.2%	8.6%	51.9%	1.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	14.7%	11.2%	8.6%	38.2%	63.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	14.7%	11.2%	8.6%	38.2%	63.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	14.7%	11.2%	8.6%	38.2%	63.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	14.7%	11.2%	8.6%	38.2%	63.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	14.7%	11.2%	3.7%	38.2%	63.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	14.7%	11.2%	3.7%	38.2%	63.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	14.7%	11.2%	3.7%	38.2%	63.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	14.7%	11.2%	3.7%	38.2%	63.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	8.5%	11.2%	3.7%	38.2%	63.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	8.5%	11.2%	3.7%	38.2%	63.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	8.5%	11.2%	3.7%	38.2%	63.8%
2026-10-14T03:00:04+00:00	4.7%	5.7%	0.5%	21.4%	50.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	4.7%	5.7%	0.5%	21.4%	50.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	4.7%	5.7%	0.5%	21.4%	50.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	4.7%	5.7%	0.5%	21.4%	50.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	4.7%	5.7%	0.5%	21.4%	50.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	4.7%	5.7%	0.5%	21.4%	50.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	5.8%	5.7%	0.5%	21.4%	47.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	5.8%	5.7%	0.5%	21.4%	47.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	5.8%	5.7%	0.5%	21.4%	47.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	5.8%	5.7%	0.5%	21.4%	47.3%
2026-10-14T10:34:35+00:00	5.8%	5.7%	0.5%	25.5%	47.3%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	5.8%	16.2%	1.8%	25.5%	47.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	5.8%	16.2%	1.8%	25.5%	47.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	5.8%	16.2%	1.8%	25.5%	47.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	14.2%	16.2%	1.8%	25.5%	47.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	14.3%	16.2%	1.8%	25.5%	47.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	14.3%	16.8%	1.8%	25.5%	47.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	14.3%	16.8%	1.8%	25.5%	47.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	14.3%	16.8%	1.8%	25.5%	47.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	14.3%	16.8%	2.2%	25.5%	47.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	14.3%	16.8%	2.2%	25.5%	47.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	14.3%	16.8%	2.2%	25.5%	47.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:40+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	2.2%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	2.2%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	2.2%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	2.2%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	2.2%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	1.4%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	1.4%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	1.4%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	8.9%	16.8%	1.4%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	8.9%	16.8%	1.4%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	8.9%	16.8%	1.4%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:35+00:00	8.9%	16.8%	1.4%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	8.9%	16.8%	1.4%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	8.9%	16.8%	2.2%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	8.9%	16.8%	2.2%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	8.9%	16.8%	2.2%	15.7%	17.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	2.2%	9.7%	5.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	2.2%	9.7%	5.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	2.2%	9.7%	5.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	2.2%	9.7%	5.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	1.5%	9.7%	5.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	6.1%	16.8%	1.5%	9.7%	5.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	6.1%	10.1%	1.5%	9.7%	5.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	6.1%	10.1%	1.5%	9.7%	5.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	6.4%	10.4%	1.5%	9.7%	5.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	6.4%	10.4%	1.5%	9.7%	5.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	6.4%	10.6%	1.5%	9.7%	5.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	6.4%	10.6%	1.5%	9.7%	5.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	6.4%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	5.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	6.4%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	5.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	6.4%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	5.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	6.4%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	5.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:58+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	1.8%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	2.5%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	2.5%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	4.9%	10.6%	2.5%	9.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	4.4%	10.6%	2.5%	9.7%	3.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	4.4%	10.6%	2.5%	9.7%	3.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	4.4%	10.6%	2.5%	9.7%	3.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	4.4%	10.6%	2.5%	9.7%	3.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	4.4%	10.6%	2.5%	9.7%	3.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	4.4%	5.4%	1.5%	9.7%	3.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	4.4%	5.4%	1.5%	9.7%	3.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	4.4%	5.4%	1.5%	9.7%	3.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	10%	67.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0094
NWS forecast	8%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.0064
IFS Ensemble	5%	64.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0029
AIFS Single	4%	66.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0019
ICON	4%	66.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0012
WeatherNext 2	2%	66.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0002
National Blend	<1%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261019-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗