KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

47%

44%

23%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.4¢Risks 32.40u

ICONNO 67.6¢Risks 67.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.60u · ICON −67.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	67.6%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	28.9%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	15.1%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	44.4%	83.8%	7.4%	—	10.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	69.0%	9.0%	—	15.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	51.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	21.1%	89.3%	0.1%	—	35.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	13.1%	69.8%	75.8%	—	50.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	14.3%	84.8%	27.2%	—	54.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	0.0%	85.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	0.8%	88.2%	67.8%	—	65.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	12.5%	88.4%	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	48.2%	84.5%	69.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	19.0%	91.6%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	35.7%	83.5%	50.0%	—	53.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	43.0%	90.0%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	19.0%	80.3%	31.2%	0.0%	59.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	34.5%	90.4%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	36.1%	83.1%	39.2%	—	75.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	11.2%	40.0%	0.0%	—	66.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	12.7%	39.6%	45.4%	0.0%	65.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	11.4%	38.1%	38.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	32.0%	23.6%	26.6%	19.9%	61.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	15.0%	26.9%	15.0%	—	46.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	27.3%	31.9%	19.1%	15.7%	42.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	26.5%	31.2%	21.1%	—	31.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	14.6%	24.5%	23.4%	15.4%	26.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	24.8%	36.6%	—	17.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	68.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	67.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	66.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	65.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗