KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

47%

44%

23%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.4¢Risks 32.40u

ICONNO 67.6¢Risks 67.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.60u · ICON −67.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:46+00:00	38.8%	50.8%	61.6%	85.5%	2.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	38.8%	50.8%	61.6%	85.5%	2.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	38.8%	50.8%	61.6%	85.5%	2.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	38.8%	50.8%	79.8%	85.5%	2.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	38.8%	50.8%	79.8%	85.5%	2.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	38.8%	50.8%	79.8%	85.5%	2.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	39.7%	50.8%	79.8%	85.5%	62.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	39.7%	50.8%	79.8%	85.5%	62.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	39.7%	50.8%	79.8%	85.5%	62.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	39.7%	50.8%	79.8%	85.5%	62.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	39.7%	50.8%	79.8%	54.8%	62.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	39.7%	50.8%	69.5%	54.8%	62.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	39.7%	50.8%	69.5%	54.8%	62.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	39.7%	50.8%	69.5%	54.8%	62.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	33.9%	50.8%	69.5%	54.8%	62.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	33.9%	50.8%	69.5%	54.8%	62.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	33.9%	50.8%	69.5%	54.8%	62.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	33.9%	50.8%	69.5%	54.8%	62.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:15+00:00	34.6%	44.8%	70.3%	64.0%	42.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	34.6%	44.8%	70.3%	64.0%	42.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	34.6%	44.8%	58.2%	64.0%	42.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	34.6%	44.8%	58.2%	64.0%	42.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	34.6%	44.8%	58.2%	64.0%	42.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	34.6%	44.8%	58.2%	64.0%	42.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	39.0%	44.8%	58.2%	59.7%	24.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	39.0%	44.8%	58.2%	59.7%	24.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	39.0%	44.8%	58.2%	59.7%	24.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	39.0%	44.8%	58.2%	59.7%	24.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	39.0%	44.8%	59.4%	59.7%	24.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	39.0%	44.8%	59.4%	59.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	39.0%	44.8%	59.4%	59.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	39.0%	44.8%	59.4%	59.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	34.6%	44.8%	59.4%	59.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	34.6%	44.8%	59.4%	59.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	34.6%	44.8%	59.4%	59.7%	24.8%
2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:00	29.4%	54.5%	55.1%	70.4%	11.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	29.4%	54.5%	55.1%	70.4%	11.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	29.4%	54.5%	55.1%	70.4%	11.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	29.4%	54.5%	55.1%	70.4%	11.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00	29.7%	54.5%	55.1%	73.2%	21.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	29.7%	54.5%	55.1%	73.2%	21.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	29.7%	54.5%	55.1%	73.2%	21.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	29.7%	54.5%	55.1%	73.2%	21.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	29.7%	54.5%	55.1%	73.2%	21.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	29.7%	46.5%	68.5%	73.2%	21.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	29.7%	46.5%	68.5%	73.2%	21.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	29.7%	46.5%	68.5%	73.2%	21.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	26.3%	46.5%	68.5%	73.2%	21.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	26.2%	46.5%	68.5%	73.2%	22.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00	26.2%	44.4%	68.5%	73.2%	22.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	26.2%	44.4%	68.5%	73.2%	22.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	26.2%	44.4%	68.5%	73.2%	22.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	26.2%	44.4%	56.8%	73.2%	22.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	26.2%	44.4%	56.8%	73.2%	22.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	26.2%	44.4%	56.8%	73.2%	22.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	25.4%	44.4%	56.8%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	25.4%	44.4%	56.8%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	25.4%	44.4%	56.8%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	25.4%	44.4%	56.8%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	25.4%	44.4%	56.8%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	25.4%	44.4%	56.8%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	25.4%	44.4%	56.8%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	25.4%	44.4%	56.8%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	27.1%	44.4%	56.8%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	27.1%	44.4%	56.8%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	27.1%	44.4%	56.8%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00	27.1%	44.4%	56.8%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	27.1%	44.4%	56.8%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	27.1%	44.4%	47.3%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	27.1%	44.4%	47.3%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	27.1%	44.4%	47.3%	57.5%	19.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	22.7%	44.4%	47.3%	57.5%	7.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	22.7%	44.4%	47.3%	57.5%	7.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	22.7%	44.4%	47.3%	57.5%	7.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	22.7%	44.4%	47.3%	57.5%	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	68.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	67.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	66.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	65.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗