KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

70%

66%

59%

57%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.8¢Risks 31.92u

ICONNO 36.2¢Risks 18.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +18.08u · ICON −18.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	19.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.5%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.6%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	10.8%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	31.7%	10.9%	0.1%	—	28.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	23.2%	55.8%	58.0%	—	55.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	5.6%	83.5%	7.0%	—	43.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	10.4%	56.4%	6.4%	—	48.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	59.9%	36.9%	45.0%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	1.4%	47.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	75.2%	61.3%	47.4%	—	63.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	71.3%	55.4%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	42.7%	71.8%	33.0%	—	72.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	57.5%	78.3%	—	—	67.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	53.9%	67.8%	23.2%	—	63.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	48.0%	76.6%	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	46.9%	84.9%	34.9%	—	64.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	48.9%	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	53.3%	88.6%	33.1%	—	71.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	59.0%	90.3%	0.0%	—	68.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	68.0%	97.3%	39.6%	0.0%	64.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	69.6%	98.4%	52.4%	—	73.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	63.4%	96.7%	48.8%	79.2%	79.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	98.5%	53.9%	—	80.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	65.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	65.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	66.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	64.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	57%	64.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	61.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗