KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

70%

66%

59%

57%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.8¢Risks 31.92u

ICONNO 36.2¢Risks 18.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +18.08u · ICON −18.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:29+00:00	52.4%	70.2%	72.0%	59.6%	74.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	52.4%	70.2%	66.9%	59.6%	74.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	52.4%	70.2%	66.9%	59.6%	74.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	52.4%	70.2%	66.9%	59.6%	74.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	68.5%	70.2%	66.9%	56.4%	83.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	68.5%	70.2%	66.9%	56.4%	83.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	68.5%	70.2%	66.9%	56.4%	83.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	68.5%	70.2%	66.9%	56.4%	83.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	68.5%	70.2%	66.9%	56.4%	83.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	68.5%	65.5%	68.6%	56.4%	83.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	68.5%	65.5%	68.6%	56.4%	83.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	68.5%	65.5%	68.6%	56.4%	83.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	72.2%	65.5%	68.6%	56.4%	83.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	72.2%	65.2%	68.5%	56.4%	83.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:15+00:00	72.2%	66.2%	68.5%	56.4%	83.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	72.2%	66.2%	68.5%	56.4%	83.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	72.2%	66.2%	77.4%	56.4%	83.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	72.2%	66.2%	77.4%	56.4%	83.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	72.2%	66.2%	77.4%	56.4%	83.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	72.2%	66.2%	77.4%	56.4%	83.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	77.4%	58.7%	57.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	77.4%	58.7%	57.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	77.4%	58.7%	57.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	77.4%	58.7%	57.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	70.4%	58.7%	57.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	70.4%	58.7%	57.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	70.4%	58.7%	57.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	70.4%	58.7%	57.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	69.9%	66.2%	70.4%	58.7%	57.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	69.9%	66.2%	70.4%	58.7%	57.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	69.9%	66.2%	70.4%	58.7%	57.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	65.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	65.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	66.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	64.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	57%	64.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	61.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗