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KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
20%
AIFS
8%
WN2
6%
HRES
3%
ICON
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 10.8¢Risks 5.38u
VS
ICONNO 89.2¢Risks 44.62u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.62u · ICON −44.62u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-06 12:0010-13 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0013.1%————4.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:004.3%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0017.2%————4.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:006.3%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.0%————7.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.3%————8.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:002.1%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.1%————4.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0012.8%————5.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.0%————9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.3%————1.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:000.0%————1.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.0%—1.7%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——0.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.2%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.0%————1.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.0%————0.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.0%—0.1%——0.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%——0.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.0%—1.7%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:006.0%2.0%0.2%0.0%—1.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.2%—1.4%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.9%6.6%7.4%—6.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:001.2%—20.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.4%0.1%22.8%0.1%—2.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:001.0%—7.4%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.1%5.1%0.1%—3.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.7%—6.2%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:001.0%5.1%1.3%2.2%—1.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.4%0.0%2.3%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:001.1%9.7%4.5%2.1%—5.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.2%7.1%2.9%——6.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.8%1.2%6.6%0.6%—7.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.7%2.6%8.8%——4.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.7%1.8%4.2%0.2%—3.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.5%1.1%6.3%——4.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.4%0.8%9.8%0.3%—2.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.6%0.8%8.0%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.9%10.4%0.2%—2.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.3%1.0%10.7%0.0%—1.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.2%1.5%24.2%0.2%0.0%1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.2%1.4%28.3%0.4%—1.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.7%16.6%0.2%2.3%2.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.1%—22.8%0.2%—1.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble20%67.9°F5.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single8%66.6°F4.3°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%67.2°F3.4°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS HRES3%64.3°F4.5°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
NWS forecast3%66.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON2%63.9°F4.0°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
National Blend<1%64.0°F3.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 19:43 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗