KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 10.8¢Risks 5.38u

ICONNO 89.2¢Risks 44.62u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.62u · ICON −44.62u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T19:43:40+00:00	18.7%	22.7%	0.5%	51.3%	23.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	18.7%	22.7%	0.5%	51.3%	23.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	18.7%	22.7%	0.5%	51.3%	23.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	18.7%	22.7%	0.5%	51.3%	23.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	18.7%	22.7%	0.5%	51.3%	23.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	18.7%	22.7%	3.8%	51.3%	23.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	18.7%	22.7%	3.8%	51.3%	23.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	18.7%	22.7%	3.8%	51.3%	23.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	6.3%	22.7%	3.8%	51.3%	23.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	6.3%	22.7%	3.8%	51.3%	23.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	6.3%	22.7%	3.8%	51.3%	23.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	6.3%	22.7%	1.9%	51.3%	23.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	6.4%	20.3%	1.5%	13.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	6.4%	20.3%	1.5%	13.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	6.4%	20.6%	1.5%	13.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	6.4%	20.6%	1.5%	13.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	6.4%	20.6%	2.2%	13.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	6.4%	20.6%	2.2%	13.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	6.4%	20.6%	2.2%	13.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	6.4%	20.6%	2.2%	13.1%	9.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	2.2%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	2.2%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	2.2%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	2.2%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	5.9%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	5.9%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	5.9%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	6.9%	20.6%	5.9%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	6.9%	20.6%	5.9%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	6.9%	20.6%	5.9%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	6.9%	20.6%	5.9%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-16T04:25:00+00:00	6.9%	20.6%	5.9%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	6.9%	20.6%	2.0%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	6.9%	20.6%	2.0%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	6.9%	20.6%	2.0%	12.2%	2.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	2.0%	12.2%	1.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	2.0%	12.2%	1.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	2.0%	12.2%	1.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	2.0%	12.2%	1.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	2.0%	12.2%	1.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	3.3%	22.1%	0.6%	12.2%	1.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	3.3%	22.1%	0.6%	12.2%	1.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	3.3%	22.1%	0.6%	12.2%	1.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:47+00:00	4.7%	21.4%	0.6%	7.8%	1.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	4.7%	21.4%	0.6%	7.8%	1.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	4.7%	21.4%	0.6%	7.8%	1.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	4.7%	21.4%	3.2%	7.8%	1.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	4.7%	21.4%	3.2%	7.8%	1.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	4.7%	21.4%	3.2%	7.8%	1.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	6.8%	21.4%	3.2%	7.8%	19.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	6.8%	21.4%	3.2%	7.8%	19.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	6.8%	21.4%	3.2%	7.8%	19.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	6.8%	21.4%	3.2%	7.8%	19.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	6.8%	21.4%	3.2%	9.4%	19.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	6.8%	21.4%	5.4%	9.4%	19.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	6.8%	21.4%	5.4%	9.4%	19.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	6.8%	21.4%	5.4%	9.4%	19.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	4.0%	21.4%	5.4%	9.4%	19.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	4.0%	21.4%	5.4%	9.4%	19.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	4.0%	21.4%	5.4%	9.4%	19.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	4.0%	21.4%	5.4%	9.4%	19.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:29+00:00	4.0%	21.4%	5.4%	9.4%	19.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	4.0%	21.4%	4.0%	9.4%	19.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	4.0%	21.4%	4.0%	9.4%	19.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	4.0%	21.4%	4.0%	9.4%	19.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	6.9%	21.4%	4.0%	5.1%	19.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	6.9%	21.4%	4.0%	5.1%	19.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	6.9%	21.4%	4.0%	5.1%	19.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	6.9%	21.4%	4.0%	5.1%	19.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	6.9%	21.4%	4.0%	5.1%	19.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	6.9%	16.3%	2.6%	5.1%	19.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	6.9%	16.3%	2.6%	5.1%	19.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	6.9%	16.3%	2.6%	5.1%	19.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	8.4%	16.3%	2.6%	5.1%	19.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	8.5%	16.8%	2.7%	5.1%	19.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:15+00:00	8.5%	16.4%	2.7%	5.1%	19.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	8.5%	16.4%	2.7%	5.1%	19.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	8.5%	16.4%	4.8%	5.1%	19.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	8.5%	16.4%	4.8%	5.1%	19.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	8.5%	16.4%	4.8%	5.1%	19.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	8.5%	16.4%	4.8%	5.1%	19.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	7.2%	16.4%	4.8%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	7.2%	16.4%	4.8%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	7.2%	16.4%	4.8%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	7.2%	16.4%	4.8%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	7.2%	16.4%	3.0%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	7.2%	16.4%	3.0%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	7.2%	16.4%	3.0%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	7.2%	16.4%	3.0%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	7.5%	16.4%	3.0%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	7.5%	16.4%	3.0%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	7.5%	16.4%	3.0%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:43+00:00	7.5%	16.4%	3.0%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	7.5%	16.4%	7.8%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	7.5%	16.4%	7.8%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	7.5%	16.4%	7.8%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	7.5%	16.4%	7.8%	5.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00	6.7%	16.4%	7.8%	5.6%	2.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	6.7%	16.4%	7.8%	5.6%	2.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	6.7%	16.4%	7.8%	5.6%	2.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00	6.7%	16.4%	7.8%	5.6%	2.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00	6.7%	18.8%	5.1%	5.6%	2.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	6.7%	18.8%	5.1%	5.6%	2.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	6.7%	18.8%	5.1%	5.6%	2.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	6.7%	18.8%	5.1%	5.6%	2.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	6.4%	19.6%	5.1%	5.6%	2.4%
2026-10-18T14:56:07+00:00	6.4%	19.6%	5.1%	5.6%	2.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	6.4%	19.9%	5.1%	5.6%	2.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	6.4%	19.9%	5.1%	5.6%	2.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	6.4%	19.9%	5.5%	5.6%	2.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	6.4%	19.9%	5.5%	5.6%	2.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	6.4%	19.9%	5.5%	5.6%	2.4%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	6.1%	19.9%	5.5%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	6.1%	19.9%	5.5%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	6.1%	19.9%	5.5%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	6.1%	19.9%	5.5%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	6.1%	19.9%	5.5%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	6.1%	19.9%	6.5%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	6.1%	19.9%	6.5%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	6.1%	19.9%	6.5%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	8.4%	19.9%	6.5%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	8.4%	19.9%	6.5%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	8.4%	19.9%	6.5%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	8.4%	19.9%	6.5%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:00	8.4%	19.9%	6.5%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	8.4%	19.9%	5.8%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	8.4%	19.9%	5.8%	3.3%	1.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	8.4%	19.9%	5.8%	3.3%	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	20%	67.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	66.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	67.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	64.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	2%	63.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	64.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 19:43 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗