KBIL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

44%

30%

30%

18%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

AIFSNO 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.20u · AIFS −61.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	5.1%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	6.6%	5.2%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	32.3%	45.8%	13.7%	—	42.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	8.4%	10.3%	26.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	33.0%	37.2%	60.6%	—	44.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	6.9%	24.2%	52.4%	—	42.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	77.5%	14.8%	59.1%	—	40.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	5.4%	65.8%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	58.7%	24.1%	46.5%	80.4%	20.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	36.8%	—	—	19.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	57.8°F	13.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	55.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	53.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	52.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	50.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	52.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	49.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261024-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗