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KBIL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
60%
HRES
44%
ICON
30%
WN2
30%
AIFS
18%
Consensus
33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 38.8¢Risks 38.80u
VS
AIFSNO 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.20u · AIFS −61.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:44+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-18T04:14:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.7% · 2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-18T04:14:44+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:44+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:44+00:0040.4%80.8%32.6%50.6%58.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:0040.4%80.8%27.9%50.6%58.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:0040.4%80.8%27.9%50.6%58.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:0040.4%80.8%27.9%50.6%58.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:0040.4%80.8%27.9%50.6%58.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:0012.2%80.8%27.9%44.0%29.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0012.2%80.8%27.9%44.0%29.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0012.2%80.8%27.9%44.0%29.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:0012.2%80.8%27.9%44.0%29.8%
2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:0012.2%59.9%29.7%44.0%29.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:0012.2%59.9%29.7%44.0%29.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:0012.2%59.9%29.7%44.0%29.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0012.2%59.9%29.7%44.0%29.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:0017.8%59.8%29.6%44.0%29.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble60%57.8°F13.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%55.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
IFS HRES44%53.5°F6.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend35%52.0°F6.7°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON30%50.7°F7.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 230%52.0°F4.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single18%49.5°F5.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261024-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗