KBIL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 54°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

53%

40%

20%

12%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 34.9¢Risks 34.95u

WN2NO 65.1¢Risks 65.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +65.05u · WN2 −65.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	3.2%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	87.0%	—	—	37.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	1.4%	94.0%	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	4.4%	72.5%	3.3%	—	70.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	34.3%	95.9%	69.6%	—	62.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	91.3%	13.4%	28.3%	—	67.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	62.5%	1.9%	33.0%	95.2%	25.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	57%	54.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	54.3°F	10.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	54.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	52.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	45.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	47.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 54°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261025-TMAX-GE54
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 54°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗