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KBIL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 54°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
57%
EPS
53%
AIFS
40%
ICON
20%
WN2
12%
Consensus
33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 34.9¢Risks 34.95u
VS
WN2NO 65.1¢Risks 65.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +65.05u · WN2 −65.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:0040.4%53.0%12.5%57.4%20.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0040.4%53.0%12.5%57.4%20.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0040.4%53.0%12.5%57.4%20.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:0040.4%53.0%12.5%57.4%20.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES57%54.7°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble53%54.3°F10.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend52%54.0°F8.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single40%52.1°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON20%45.3°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 212%47.2°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 54°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261025-TMAX-GE54
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 54°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗