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KBIL / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 52°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
83%
AIFS
76%
WN2
56%
EPS
50%
ICON
18%
Consensus
63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 50.5¢Risks 50.50u
VS
ICONNO 49.5¢Risks 49.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +49.50u · ICON −49.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 90.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 78.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 7.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 55.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 67.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 64.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 61.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 78.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 76.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 75.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 88.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 67.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 85.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:004.5%———7.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:005.1%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0041.0%———52.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0077.2%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0065.0%———55.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0094.5%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:008.3%———67.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0014.9%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0035.4%———59.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0061.0%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:003.9%———59.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0023.6%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:005.6%———58.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0073.9%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0075.6%———64.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0047.9%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0027.8%———61.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0025.7%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0017.8%———84.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:005.2%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:002.0%———78.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.7%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:005.3%—90.7%—76.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:001.4%—78.6%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0014.7%———75.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0018.1%—3.5%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0015.7%—0.5%—88.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0094.9%—7.7%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0017.6%—5.0%—67.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0070.3%—11.6%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0050.7%1.0%1.2%7.2%85.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0069.2%—34.5%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES83%57.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single76%55.5°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 256%52.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%52.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble50%51.4°F13.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON18%42.4°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 52°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261027-TMAX-GE52
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 52°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗