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KBIL / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 52°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
83%
AIFS
76%
WN2
56%
EPS
50%
ICON
18%
Consensus
63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 50.5¢Risks 50.50u
VS
ICONNO 49.5¢Risks 49.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +49.50u · ICON −49.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00ICON: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00ICON: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00ICON: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00ICON: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 13:1010-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:0075.7%49.7%56.2%82.8%18.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:0075.7%49.7%56.2%82.8%18.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0075.7%49.7%56.2%82.8%18.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0075.7%49.7%56.2%82.8%18.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:0075.7%49.7%56.2%82.8%18.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0075.7%49.7%56.2%82.8%18.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES83%57.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single76%55.5°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 256%52.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%52.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble50%51.4°F13.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON18%42.4°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 52°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261027-TMAX-GE52
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 52°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗