KBNA / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 6.8¢Risks 3.38u

EPSNO 93.2¢Risks 46.62u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.62u · EPS −46.62u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	24.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	14.9%	—	—	22.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	37.8%	—	—	24.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	40.6%	—	—	21.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	28.6%	7.4%	—	21.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	3.8%	33.7%	4.4%	—	23.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	20.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	49.2%	18.4%	—	25.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	38.5%	—	—	14.5%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	24.2%	33.7%	5.7%	—	20.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.9%	25.0%	—	—	16.3%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	18.4%	36.1%	5.8%	—	12.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	3.3%	14.2%	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	12.7%	15.6%	11.8%	—	12.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	6.6%	20.2%	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	6.6%	17.2%	1.0%	—	8.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	6.7%	11.3%	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	9.8%	15.3%	0.4%	—	9.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	4.9%	5.4%	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.3%	6.4%	0.1%	—	4.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.9%	5.0%	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	6.6%	3.1%	0.1%	—	3.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.2%	1.7%	0.0%	—	4.0%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	6.8%	0.5%	0.7%	1.7%	2.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.8%	4.8%	0.3%	—	1.6%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.9%	1.3%	0.3%	0.2%	1.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.9%	3.2%	0.3%	—	1.0%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.3%	3.7%	0.5%	0.1%	0.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.7%	2.7%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.0%	1.2%	0.1%	0.1%	1.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.7%	6.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	0.9%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	0.7%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	13%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	11%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	5%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	2%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260909-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗