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KBNA / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
13%
HRES
12%
ICON
5%
WN2
4%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 6.8¢Risks 3.38u
VS
EPSNO 93.2¢Risks 46.62u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.62u · EPS −46.62u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:0009-08 03:3809-08 05:0809-08 06:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:0012.7%0.8%1.6%11.5%5.2%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:0012.7%0.8%1.6%11.5%5.2%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:0012.7%0.8%3.6%11.5%5.2%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:0012.7%0.8%3.6%11.5%5.2%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:0012.7%0.8%3.6%11.5%5.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single13%——Not retainedPending
IFS HRES12%——Not retainedPending
RRFS11%——Not retainedPending
NWS forecast8%——Not retainedPending
ICON5%——Not retainedPending
WeatherNext 24%——Not retainedPending
National Blend2%——Not retainedPending
IFS Ensemble<1%——Not retainedPending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260909-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗