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KBNA / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 10 · 06:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
9%
HRES
7%
WN2
4%
ICON
3%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 4.8¢Risks 1.20u
VS
EPSNO 95.2¢Risks 23.80u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.80u · EPS −23.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 34.3% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 26.4% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.9% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.9% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.5% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.1% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.1% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.7% · 2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 61.6% · 2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.8% · 2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 59.5% · 2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.4% · 2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 59.9% · 2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.7% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 73.9% · 2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 75.4% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 79.6% · 2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 55.8% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.4% · 2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.3% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 54.7% · 2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.7% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.4% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.6% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.1% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.6% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.5% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.0% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.1% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.6% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.0% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.5% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.3% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.5% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.3% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.9% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.0% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.3% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.4% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.8% · 2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.0% · 2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.4% · 2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.7% · 2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.8% · 2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.8% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.6% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.1% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.6% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.5% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.1% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.1% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.6% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.2% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.4% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:0008-26 06:0009-03 00:0009-10 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:000.4%————1.8%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:0010.0%—————
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:004.3%————15.2%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:008.5%————12.6%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:0012.6%—————
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:000.2%————12.6%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:008.9%—————
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:007.3%————15.6%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:004.9%—————
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:005.8%————25.2%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:008.5%—————
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:0010.8%————20.8%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:0020.1%—————
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:005.3%————20.8%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:007.7%—————
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:003.8%————24.8%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:007.9%—————
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:004.2%————22.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:004.9%—————
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:007.7%————28.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:003.6%—0.0%———
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:005.8%————25.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:0010.7%—————
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:0011.5%—29.7%——29.7%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:0013.6%—61.6%———
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:008.3%—9.8%——30.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:005.6%—59.5%———
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:008.5%—32.4%——26.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:0012.2%—59.9%———
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:008.8%—52.7%——34.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:0014.2%—73.9%———
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:006.9%—75.4%6.5%—35.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:004.4%—79.6%———
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:003.3%34.3%55.8%9.3%—37.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:003.6%—18.4%——0.2%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:003.2%26.4%9.3%17.9%—21.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:001.2%—54.7%——0.1%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:001.6%33.0%36.7%9.0%—25.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:000.6%0.8%2.0%——13.0%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:000.1%20.7%0.8%4.3%—25.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:000.2%2.8%1.4%——11.1%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:000.0%12.2%18.4%1.9%—13.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:000.3%3.8%5.0%——14.0%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:000.1%2.8%4.6%0.9%—9.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:001.3%0.2%0.1%——6.1%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:001.4%0.5%17.1%1.0%—10.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:000.8%1.6%14.6%——11.4%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:000.9%13.9%23.5%0.6%0.1%6.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:000.6%8.3%15.0%——7.6%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:000.6%14.9%22.1%0.9%0.0%9.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:000.8%13.5%29.6%0.0%—7.1%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:000.7%16.8%14.0%0.4%0.0%6.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:000.5%14.5%14.5%0.3%—5.1%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:000.2%15.1%2.6%0.1%0.0%4.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:000.1%13.5%10.3%0.0%—1.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:000.0%11.3%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:000.0%7.1%1.8%0.0%—2.0%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:000.0%6.8%3.2%0.4%0.4%0.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:000.0%1.3%1.1%0.2%—0.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:000.0%2.0%1.8%0.1%0.1%0.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.9%0.6%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend14%94.0°F5.2°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
AIFS Single9%93.9°F4.2°F2026-09-09 18:00Pending
IFS HRES7%93.9°F3.8°F2026-09-09 12:00Pending
NWS forecast5%95.0°F2.8°F2026-09-10 02:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%93.6°F3.4°F2026-09-09 18:00Pending
ICON3%93.0°F3.4°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%92.7°F2.7°F2026-09-09 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260910-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗