KBNA / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 10 · 06:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 4.8¢Risks 1.20u

EPSNO 95.2¢Risks 23.80u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.80u · EPS −23.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00	10.7%	1.7%	1.7%	29.6%	0.4%
2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00	10.7%	1.7%	1.7%	29.6%	0.4%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	10.7%	1.7%	1.7%	29.6%	0.4%
2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00	10.7%	1.7%	1.7%	29.6%	0.4%
2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00	10.7%	1.7%	1.7%	29.6%	0.4%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	13.3%	1.9%	1.7%	22.5%	15.6%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	13.3%	1.9%	1.7%	22.5%	15.6%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	13.3%	1.9%	1.7%	22.5%	15.6%
2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00	13.3%	1.9%	1.7%	22.5%	15.6%
2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00	13.3%	1.9%	2.4%	22.5%	15.6%
2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00	13.3%	1.9%	2.4%	22.5%	15.6%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	13.3%	1.9%	2.4%	22.5%	15.6%
2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00	11.9%	1.9%	2.4%	22.5%	15.6%
2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00	11.9%	1.9%	2.4%	22.5%	15.6%
2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00	11.9%	1.9%	2.4%	22.5%	15.6%
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00	11.9%	1.9%	2.4%	24.8%	15.6%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	11.9%	1.9%	2.4%	24.8%	15.6%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00	11.9%	1.9%	4.2%	24.8%	15.6%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00	11.9%	1.9%	4.2%	24.8%	15.6%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	11.9%	1.9%	4.2%	24.8%	15.6%
2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00	11.8%	1.9%	4.2%	33.3%	10.5%
2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00	11.8%	1.9%	4.2%	33.3%	10.5%
2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00	11.8%	1.9%	4.2%	33.3%	10.5%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	11.8%	1.9%	4.2%	33.3%	10.5%
2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00	11.8%	2.5%	4.2%	33.3%	10.5%
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00	11.8%	2.5%	2.7%	33.3%	10.5%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	11.8%	2.5%	2.7%	33.3%	10.5%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00	11.8%	2.5%	2.7%	33.3%	10.5%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00	14.8%	2.5%	2.7%	33.3%	10.5%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00	14.8%	2.5%	2.7%	33.3%	10.6%
2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00	14.8%	2.5%	2.7%	33.3%	10.6%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	14.8%	2.5%	2.7%	33.3%	10.6%
2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00	14.8%	2.5%	2.7%	33.3%	10.6%
2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00	14.8%	2.5%	2.7%	33.3%	10.6%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	14.8%	2.5%	2.7%	33.3%	10.6%
2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00	14.8%	2.5%	2.1%	33.3%	10.6%
2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00	14.8%	2.5%	2.1%	33.3%	10.6%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	14.8%	2.5%	2.1%	33.3%	10.6%
2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00	14.8%	2.5%	2.1%	33.3%	10.6%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	2.1%	24.3%	13.4%
2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	2.1%	24.3%	13.4%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	2.1%	24.3%	13.4%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	2.1%	24.3%	13.4%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	2.1%	24.3%	13.4%
2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	1.8%	24.3%	13.4%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	1.8%	24.3%	13.4%
2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	1.8%	24.3%	13.4%
2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00	14.2%	2.5%	1.8%	24.3%	13.4%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	14.2%	2.5%	1.8%	24.3%	13.4%
2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00	14.2%	2.3%	1.8%	24.3%	13.5%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	14.2%	2.3%	1.8%	24.3%	13.5%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	14.2%	2.3%	1.8%	24.3%	13.5%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	14.2%	2.3%	5.1%	24.3%	13.5%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00	14.2%	2.3%	5.1%	24.3%	13.5%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	14.2%	2.3%	5.1%	24.3%	13.5%
2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00	10.7%	2.3%	5.1%	10.2%	8.8%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	10.7%	2.3%	5.1%	10.2%	8.8%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	10.7%	2.3%	5.1%	10.2%	8.8%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	10.7%	2.3%	5.1%	10.2%	8.8%
2026-09-09T10:37:42+00:00	10.7%	2.3%	5.1%	10.2%	8.8%
2026-09-09T11:22:47+00:00	10.7%	2.3%	2.5%	10.2%	8.8%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	10.7%	2.3%	2.5%	10.2%	8.8%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	10.7%	2.3%	2.5%	10.2%	8.8%
2026-09-09T13:38:04+00:00	10.2%	2.3%	2.5%	10.2%	8.8%
2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00	10.2%	2.3%	2.5%	10.2%	8.8%
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	10.2%	1.6%	2.5%	10.2%	8.8%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	10.2%	1.6%	2.5%	10.2%	8.8%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	10.2%	1.6%	2.5%	10.2%	7.5%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	10.2%	1.6%	1.3%	10.2%	7.5%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	10.2%	1.6%	1.3%	10.2%	7.5%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	10.2%	1.6%	1.3%	10.2%	7.5%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	9.0%	0.6%	4.0%	6.9%	2.8%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	9.0%	0.6%	4.0%	6.9%	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	14%	94.0°F	5.2°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	93.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	93.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	95.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	93.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	3%	93.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	92.7°F	2.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260910-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗