KBNA / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Sep 10 · 06:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

44%

40%

33%

25%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.8¢Risks 17.38u

EPSNO 65.2¢Risks 32.62u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.62u · EPS −32.62u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	52.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	59.0%	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	30.7%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	85.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	64.0%	—	—	57.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	82.0%	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	94.2%	26.3%	—	69.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	69.6%	85.6%	34.3%	—	72.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	51.5%	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	62.7%	35.8%	51.5%	—	56.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	86.3%	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	71.2%	74.5%	36.7%	—	63.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	8.5%	15.3%	—	—	45.9%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	59.1%	8.3%	25.1%	—	64.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	20.1%	13.2%	—	—	44.0%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	47.4%	57.8%	16.7%	—	50.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	25.7%	30.2%	—	—	51.8%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	22.3%	29.7%	11.0%	—	42.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	4.0%	3.0%	—	—	36.1%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	8.6%	60.6%	13.6%	—	48.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	18.3%	58.0%	—	—	52.0%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	58.2%	71.5%	11.3%	3.8%	40.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	47.9%	61.5%	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	62.9%	72.7%	16.2%	1.3%	51.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	62.2%	81.0%	0.0%	—	47.8%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	69.0%	64.8%	11.0%	1.1%	46.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	67.5%	67.5%	11.4%	—	45.2%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	70.2%	35.4%	7.1%	1.2%	43.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	69.8%	63.9%	3.2%	—	30.2%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	68.1%	4.0%	6.5%	4.0%	26.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	61.0%	36.3%	1.7%	—	37.7%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	62.8%	48.5%	19.1%	19.1%	23.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	36.6%	35.2%	18.1%	—	7.5%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	46.8%	45.3%	9.6%	9.6%	6.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	38.6%	33.9%	5.3%	—	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	57%	95.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	93.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	94.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	93.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	93.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	33%	93.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	92.7°F	2.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260910-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗