KBNA / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Sep 10 · 06:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

44%

40%

33%

25%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.8¢Risks 17.38u

EPSNO 65.2¢Risks 32.62u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.62u · EPS −32.62u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00	44.7%	45.2%	23.0%	75.3%	8.4%
2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00	44.7%	45.2%	23.0%	75.3%	8.4%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	44.7%	45.2%	23.0%	75.3%	8.4%
2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00	44.7%	45.2%	23.0%	75.3%	8.4%
2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00	44.7%	45.2%	23.0%	75.3%	8.4%
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00	47.3%	46.8%	27.3%	66.2%	61.2%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	47.3%	46.8%	27.3%	66.2%	61.2%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00	47.3%	46.8%	36.1%	66.2%	61.2%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00	47.3%	46.8%	36.1%	66.2%	61.2%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	47.3%	46.8%	36.1%	66.2%	61.2%
2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00	49.1%	46.8%	36.1%	77.9%	56.8%
2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00	49.1%	46.8%	36.1%	77.9%	56.8%
2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00	49.1%	46.8%	36.1%	77.9%	56.8%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	49.1%	46.8%	36.1%	77.9%	56.8%
2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00	49.1%	48.5%	36.1%	77.9%	56.8%
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00	49.1%	48.5%	31.3%	77.9%	56.8%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	49.1%	48.5%	31.3%	77.9%	56.8%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00	49.1%	48.5%	31.3%	77.9%	56.8%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00	54.6%	48.5%	31.3%	77.9%	56.8%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00	54.6%	48.5%	31.3%	77.9%	56.8%
2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00	53.7%	46.9%	25.5%	69.3%	62.2%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	53.7%	46.9%	25.5%	69.3%	62.2%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	53.7%	46.9%	25.5%	69.3%	62.2%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	53.7%	46.9%	42.1%	69.3%	62.2%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00	53.7%	46.9%	42.1%	69.3%	62.2%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	53.7%	46.9%	42.1%	69.3%	62.2%
2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00	48.1%	46.9%	42.1%	52.1%	52.2%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	48.1%	46.9%	42.1%	52.1%	52.2%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	48.1%	46.9%	42.1%	52.1%	52.2%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	48.1%	46.9%	42.1%	52.1%	52.2%
2026-09-09T10:37:42+00:00	48.1%	46.9%	42.1%	52.1%	52.2%
2026-09-09T11:22:47+00:00	48.1%	46.9%	31.8%	52.1%	52.2%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	48.1%	46.9%	31.8%	52.1%	52.2%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	48.1%	46.9%	31.8%	52.1%	52.2%
2026-09-09T13:38:04+00:00	47.1%	46.9%	31.8%	52.1%	52.2%
2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00	47.1%	46.9%	31.8%	52.1%	52.2%
2026-09-10T03:10:10+00:00	44.3%	25.2%	23.0%	43.7%	48.9%
2026-09-10T03:55:19+00:00	44.3%	25.2%	23.0%	43.7%	48.9%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	44.3%	25.2%	23.0%	43.7%	32.9%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	44.3%	25.2%	39.5%	43.7%	32.9%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	44.3%	25.2%	39.5%	43.7%	32.9%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	44.3%	25.2%	39.5%	43.7%	32.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	57%	95.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	93.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	94.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	93.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	93.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	33%	93.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	92.7°F	2.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260910-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗