KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

51%

23%

23%

12%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.3¢Risks 33.30u

ICONNO 66.7¢Risks 66.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.70u · ICON −66.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	4.3%	—	—	6.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	49.3%	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	26.9%	1.7%	—	9.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	3.2%	39.9%	14.0%	—	10.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	20.5%	33.0%	6.5%	—	6.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	16.4%	42.1%	11.9%	—	5.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	2.0%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	17.3%	38.5%	13.8%	9.3%	5.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	12.3%	44.9%	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	7.0%	50.9%	15.1%	—	10.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	20.9%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	15.4%	49.1%	19.0%	—	17.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	22.4%	47.2%	—	—	9.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	28.7%	35.7%	12.6%	—	15.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	26.5%	36.3%	—	—	22.6%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	23.5%	34.9%	7.8%	0.0%	14.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	26.2%	32.6%	—	—	12.1%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	31.1%	23.8%	12.5%	—	26.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	28.6%	31.5%	0.0%	—	22.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	30.0%	0.0%	1.9%	16.0%	16.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	30.4%	32.5%	1.6%	—	16.7%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	13.7%	29.8%	3.7%	0.0%	28.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	13.5%	26.9%	3.5%	—	20.9%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	17.3%	24.0%	3.5%	18.2%	24.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	26.5%	20.1%	2.1%	—	21.1%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	31.8%	13.8%	4.0%	18.2%	20.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	24.8%	23.6%	1.1%	—	9.9%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	20.3%	34.6%	4.1%	16.1%	7.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	29.5%	40.2%	5.3%	—	19.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	57%	100.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	100.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	99.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	99.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	97.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	97.4°F	2.8°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	95.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 08 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗