KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

51%

23%

23%

12%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.3¢Risks 33.30u

ICONNO 66.7¢Risks 66.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.70u · ICON −66.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00	14.7%	3.2%	4.5%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00	14.7%	3.2%	4.5%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00	14.7%	3.2%	4.5%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	14.7%	3.2%	4.5%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00	14.7%	2.7%	4.5%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00	14.7%	2.7%	1.0%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	14.7%	2.7%	1.0%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00	14.7%	2.7%	1.0%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00	26.3%	2.7%	1.0%	50.6%	29.5%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00	26.3%	2.7%	1.0%	50.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00	26.3%	2.7%	1.0%	50.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	26.3%	2.7%	1.0%	50.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00	26.3%	2.7%	1.0%	50.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00	26.3%	2.7%	1.0%	50.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	26.3%	2.7%	1.0%	50.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00	26.3%	2.7%	2.0%	50.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00	26.3%	2.7%	2.0%	50.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	26.3%	2.7%	2.0%	50.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00	26.3%	2.7%	2.0%	50.6%	29.4%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	25.1%	2.7%	2.0%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00	25.1%	2.7%	2.0%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	25.1%	2.7%	2.0%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	25.1%	2.7%	2.0%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	25.1%	2.7%	2.0%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00	25.1%	2.7%	10.3%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	25.1%	2.7%	10.3%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00	25.1%	2.7%	10.3%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00	24.5%	2.7%	10.3%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	24.5%	2.7%	10.3%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-09T03:06:39+00:00	24.5%	2.6%	10.3%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	24.5%	2.6%	10.3%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	24.5%	2.6%	10.3%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	24.5%	2.6%	9.2%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00	24.5%	2.6%	9.2%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	24.5%	2.6%	9.2%	6.3%	49.6%
2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00	25.8%	2.6%	9.2%	26.4%	14.5%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	25.8%	2.6%	9.2%	26.4%	14.5%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	25.8%	2.6%	9.2%	26.4%	14.5%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	25.8%	2.6%	9.2%	26.4%	14.5%
2026-09-09T10:37:42+00:00	25.8%	2.6%	9.2%	26.4%	14.5%
2026-09-09T11:22:47+00:00	25.8%	2.6%	7.8%	26.4%	14.5%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	25.8%	2.6%	7.8%	26.4%	14.5%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	25.8%	2.6%	7.8%	26.4%	14.5%
2026-09-09T13:38:04+00:00	26.4%	2.6%	7.8%	26.4%	14.5%
2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00	26.3%	2.6%	8.2%	26.4%	14.5%
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	26.3%	0.3%	8.2%	26.4%	14.5%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	26.3%	0.3%	8.2%	26.4%	14.5%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	26.3%	0.3%	8.2%	26.4%	42.3%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	26.3%	0.3%	3.8%	26.4%	42.3%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	26.3%	0.3%	3.8%	26.4%	42.3%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	26.3%	0.3%	3.8%	26.4%	42.3%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00	24.5%	0.3%	3.8%	23.1%	42.3%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00	24.5%	0.3%	3.8%	23.1%	42.3%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	24.5%	0.3%	3.8%	23.1%	42.3%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00	24.5%	0.3%	3.8%	23.1%	42.3%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00	24.5%	0.3%	3.8%	23.1%	42.3%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	24.5%	0.3%	5.5%	23.1%	42.3%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00	24.5%	0.3%	5.5%	23.1%	42.3%
2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00	24.5%	0.3%	5.5%	23.1%	42.3%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00	26.9%	0.3%	5.5%	23.1%	42.3%
2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00	26.9%	0.8%	5.5%	23.1%	42.3%
2026-09-10T03:10:10+00:00	26.9%	0.8%	5.5%	23.1%	42.3%
2026-09-10T03:55:19+00:00	26.9%	0.8%	5.5%	23.1%	42.3%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	26.9%	0.8%	5.5%	23.1%	31.3%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	26.9%	0.8%	4.2%	23.1%	31.3%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	26.9%	0.8%	4.2%	23.1%	31.3%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	26.9%	0.8%	4.2%	23.1%	31.3%
2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00	30.2%	0.8%	4.2%	28.7%	31.3%
2026-09-10T08:26:01+00:00	30.2%	0.8%	4.2%	28.7%	31.3%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	30.2%	0.8%	4.2%	28.7%	31.3%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	30.2%	0.8%	4.2%	28.7%	31.3%
2026-09-10T10:41:14+00:00	30.2%	0.8%	4.2%	28.7%	31.3%
2026-09-10T11:26:20+00:00	30.2%	3.0%	3.5%	28.7%	31.3%
2026-09-10T12:11:27+00:00	30.2%	3.0%	3.5%	28.7%	31.3%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	30.2%	3.0%	3.5%	28.7%	31.3%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	34.5%	3.0%	3.5%	28.7%	31.3%
2026-09-10T14:26:55+00:00	34.5%	3.0%	3.5%	28.7%	32.0%
2026-09-10T15:12:01+00:00	34.5%	3.0%	3.5%	28.7%	32.0%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	34.5%	3.0%	3.5%	28.7%	32.0%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	34.5%	3.0%	3.5%	28.7%	34.5%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	34.5%	3.0%	5.5%	28.7%	34.5%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	34.5%	3.0%	5.5%	28.7%	34.5%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	34.5%	3.0%	5.5%	28.7%	34.5%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	35.2%	3.0%	5.5%	19.7%	34.5%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	35.2%	3.0%	5.5%	19.7%	34.5%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	35.2%	3.0%	5.5%	19.7%	34.5%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	35.2%	3.0%	5.5%	19.7%	34.5%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	35.2%	3.0%	5.5%	19.7%	34.5%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	35.2%	3.0%	5.8%	19.7%	34.5%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	35.2%	3.0%	5.8%	19.7%	34.5%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	35.2%	3.5%	5.8%	19.7%	34.5%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	30.2%	2.8%	5.8%	19.7%	34.5%
2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00	30.2%	2.8%	5.8%	19.7%	34.5%
2026-09-11T03:13:36+00:00	30.2%	2.8%	5.8%	19.7%	34.5%
2026-09-11T03:58:45+00:00	30.2%	2.8%	5.8%	19.7%	34.5%
2026-09-11T04:43:50+00:00	30.2%	2.8%	5.8%	19.7%	12.3%
2026-09-11T05:28:56+00:00	30.2%	2.8%	6.4%	19.7%	12.3%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	30.2%	2.8%	6.4%	19.7%	12.3%
2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00	30.2%	2.8%	6.4%	19.7%	12.3%
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	40.8%	2.8%	6.4%	22.7%	12.3%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	40.8%	2.8%	6.4%	22.7%	12.3%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	40.8%	2.8%	6.4%	22.7%	12.3%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	40.8%	2.8%	6.4%	22.7%	12.3%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	40.8%	2.8%	6.4%	22.7%	12.3%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	40.8%	2.6%	6.1%	22.7%	12.3%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	40.8%	2.6%	6.1%	22.7%	12.3%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	40.8%	2.6%	6.1%	22.7%	12.3%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	6.1%	22.7%	12.3%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	45.8%	3.5%	6.1%	22.7%	12.4%
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	6.1%	22.7%	12.4%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	6.1%	22.7%	12.4%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	6.1%	22.7%	25.3%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.5%	22.7%	25.3%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.5%	22.7%	25.3%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.5%	22.7%	25.3%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.5%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.5%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.5%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.5%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.5%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.2%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.2%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.2%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.2%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.2%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.2%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.2%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	5.2%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	7.4%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	7.4%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	7.4%	52.4%	25.3%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	42.0%	2.6%	7.4%	22.1%	31.3%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	42.0%	2.6%	7.4%	22.1%	31.3%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	42.0%	2.6%	7.4%	22.1%	31.3%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	42.0%	2.6%	7.4%	22.1%	31.3%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	42.0%	2.6%	7.4%	22.1%	31.3%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	42.0%	3.8%	5.0%	22.1%	31.3%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	42.0%	3.8%	5.0%	22.1%	31.3%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	42.0%	3.8%	5.0%	22.1%	31.3%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	42.0%	3.8%	5.0%	22.1%	31.3%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	42.0%	3.8%	5.0%	28.5%	31.2%
2026-09-12T15:20:09+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	5.0%	22.0%	31.2%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	5.0%	22.0%	31.2%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	5.0%	22.0%	31.2%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	3.5%	22.0%	31.2%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	3.5%	22.0%	31.2%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	3.5%	22.0%	31.2%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	3.5%	22.0%	26.8%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	3.5%	22.0%	26.8%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	3.5%	22.0%	26.8%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	3.5%	22.0%	26.8%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	3.5%	29.1%	26.8%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	3.5%	29.1%	26.8%
2026-09-13T00:21:25+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	3.5%	29.1%	26.8%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	42.0%	5.2%	3.5%	29.1%	26.8%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	44.6%	5.2%	3.5%	29.1%	26.8%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	44.6%	5.2%	3.5%	29.1%	26.8%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	44.6%	5.2%	3.5%	29.1%	26.8%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	44.6%	5.2%	3.5%	29.1%	26.8%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	44.6%	5.2%	3.5%	29.1%	26.8%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	44.6%	5.2%	3.5%	29.1%	26.8%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	44.6%	5.2%	3.5%	29.1%	26.8%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	44.6%	5.2%	3.5%	29.1%	26.8%
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	50.9%	5.2%	3.5%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	50.9%	5.2%	3.5%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	50.9%	5.2%	3.5%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	50.9%	5.2%	3.5%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	50.9%	15.0%	4.3%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	50.9%	15.0%	4.3%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	50.9%	15.0%	4.3%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	50.9%	15.0%	4.3%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	52.8%	15.1%	4.3%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	52.8%	15.1%	4.3%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	52.8%	16.9%	4.3%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	52.8%	16.9%	4.3%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	52.8%	16.9%	4.1%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	52.8%	16.9%	4.1%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	52.8%	16.9%	4.1%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	52.8%	16.9%	4.1%	42.4%	25.7%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	54.7%	16.9%	4.1%	35.9%	25.7%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	54.7%	16.9%	4.1%	35.9%	25.7%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	54.7%	16.9%	4.1%	35.9%	25.7%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	54.7%	16.9%	4.1%	35.9%	25.7%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	54.7%	16.0%	4.9%	35.9%	25.7%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	54.7%	16.0%	4.9%	35.9%	25.7%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	54.7%	16.0%	4.9%	35.9%	25.7%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	54.7%	16.0%	4.9%	35.9%	25.7%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	52.8%	16.0%	4.9%	35.6%	25.7%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	52.8%	16.0%	4.9%	35.6%	25.7%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	52.8%	16.0%	4.9%	35.6%	25.7%
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	52.8%	16.0%	4.9%	35.9%	25.7%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	52.8%	16.0%	9.4%	35.9%	25.7%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	52.8%	16.0%	9.4%	35.9%	25.7%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	52.8%	16.0%	9.4%	35.9%	25.7%
2026-09-14T07:11:38+00:00	52.8%	16.0%	9.4%	35.9%	25.7%
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	56.7%	16.0%	9.4%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	56.7%	16.0%	9.4%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	56.7%	16.0%	9.4%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	56.7%	16.0%	9.4%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T10:57:25+00:00	56.7%	21.6%	9.4%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	56.7%	21.6%	9.4%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	56.7%	21.6%	9.4%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	56.7%	21.6%	9.4%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T13:57:48+00:00	54.8%	21.7%	9.4%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	54.8%	21.7%	9.4%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T15:28:38+00:00	54.8%	21.6%	9.4%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	54.8%	21.6%	9.4%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T16:58:56+00:00	54.8%	21.6%	9.7%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	54.8%	21.6%	9.7%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T18:29:10+00:00	54.8%	21.6%	9.7%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	54.8%	21.6%	9.7%	40.6%	8.4%
2026-09-14T19:59:20+00:00	56.7%	21.6%	9.7%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	56.7%	21.6%	9.7%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-14T21:29:31+00:00	56.7%	21.6%	9.7%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-14T22:14:36+00:00	56.7%	21.6%	9.7%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	56.7%	22.7%	7.0%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-14T23:44:50+00:00	56.7%	22.7%	7.0%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-15T00:29:56+00:00	56.7%	22.7%	7.0%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	56.7%	22.7%	7.0%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-15T02:00:09+00:00	54.8%	22.7%	7.0%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	54.8%	22.7%	7.0%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00	54.8%	22.7%	7.0%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00	54.8%	22.7%	7.0%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	54.8%	22.7%	23.0%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	54.8%	22.7%	23.0%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	54.8%	22.7%	23.0%	51.1%	11.8%
2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00	54.8%	22.7%	23.0%	51.1%	11.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	57%	100.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	100.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	99.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	99.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	97.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	97.4°F	2.8°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	95.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 08 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗