KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

95%

94%

74%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 85.5¢Risks 85.50u

WN2NO 14.5¢Risks 14.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +14.50u · WN2 −14.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	6.9%	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	34.2%	—	—	41.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	91.0%	—	—	49.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	78.6%	23.5%	—	52.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	35.0%	88.7%	65.0%	—	59.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	76.1%	86.2%	50.8%	—	50.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	73.2%	91.9%	66.3%	—	50.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	34.1%	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	76.8%	91.6%	72.1%	63.9%	53.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	71.2%	94.4%	—	—	45.7%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	61.3%	96.2%	76.6%	—	68.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	83.9%	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	79.7%	96.6%	83.4%	—	81.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	87.3%	96.6%	—	—	71.6%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	91.8%	94.4%	79.0%	—	82.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	91.6%	95.1%	—	—	89.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	91.0%	95.3%	74.1%	1.6%	84.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	93.2%	95.3%	—	—	83.1%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	95.5%	93.0%	85.1%	—	94.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	95.5%	96.2%	0.0%	—	93.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	96.5%	3.3%	60.4%	91.0%	91.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	97.1%	97.5%	60.7%	—	92.6%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	92.0%	97.5%	76.4%	4.9%	97.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	93.2%	97.6%	78.1%	—	96.3%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	96.0%	97.6%	80.9%	96.3%	97.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	98.5%	97.5%	77.9%	—	97.7%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	99.3%	96.5%	87.8%	97.7%	98.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	99.1%	99.0%	77.6%	—	95.9%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	97.6%	99.0%	99.7%	92.3%	98.5%	95.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	99.7%	99.9%	95.5%	—	99.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	98%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	98%	96.8°F	2.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	99.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	95%	96.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	95%	97.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	98.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	93.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE92
Opened Sep 08 · 11:09 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 92°F+ · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗