KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

95%

94%

74%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 85.5¢Risks 85.50u

WN2NO 14.5¢Risks 14.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +14.50u · WN2 −14.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00	65.5%	55.1%	25.7%	90.6%	60.8%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	65.5%	55.1%	25.7%	90.6%	60.8%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00	65.5%	55.1%	25.7%	90.6%	60.8%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00	79.3%	55.1%	25.7%	90.6%	60.8%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00	79.3%	55.1%	25.7%	90.6%	60.9%
2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00	79.3%	55.1%	25.7%	90.6%	60.9%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	79.3%	55.1%	25.7%	90.6%	60.9%
2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00	79.3%	55.1%	25.7%	90.6%	60.9%
2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00	79.3%	55.1%	25.7%	90.6%	60.9%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	79.3%	55.1%	25.7%	90.6%	60.9%
2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00	79.3%	55.1%	36.0%	90.6%	60.9%
2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00	79.3%	55.1%	36.0%	90.6%	60.9%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	79.3%	55.1%	36.0%	90.6%	60.9%
2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00	79.3%	55.1%	36.0%	90.6%	60.9%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	78.2%	55.1%	36.0%	41.0%	79.0%
2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00	78.2%	55.1%	36.0%	41.0%	79.0%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	78.2%	55.1%	36.0%	41.0%	79.0%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	78.2%	55.1%	36.0%	41.0%	79.0%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	78.2%	55.1%	36.0%	41.0%	79.0%
2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00	78.2%	55.1%	66.3%	41.0%	79.0%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	78.2%	55.1%	66.3%	41.0%	79.0%
2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00	78.2%	55.1%	66.3%	41.0%	79.0%
2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00	77.7%	55.1%	66.3%	41.0%	79.0%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	77.7%	55.1%	66.3%	41.0%	79.0%
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	80.4%	62.1%	65.7%	71.6%	55.3%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	80.4%	62.1%	65.7%	71.6%	55.3%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	80.4%	62.1%	65.7%	71.6%	84.1%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	80.4%	62.1%	50.9%	71.6%	84.1%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	80.4%	62.1%	50.9%	71.6%	84.1%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	80.4%	62.1%	50.9%	71.6%	84.1%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00	78.8%	62.1%	50.9%	67.9%	84.1%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00	78.8%	62.1%	50.9%	67.9%	84.1%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	78.8%	62.1%	50.9%	67.9%	84.1%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00	78.8%	62.1%	50.9%	67.9%	84.1%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00	78.8%	62.1%	50.9%	67.9%	84.1%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	78.8%	62.1%	58.0%	67.9%	84.1%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00	78.8%	62.1%	58.0%	67.9%	84.1%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	78.8%	62.1%	58.0%	67.9%	84.1%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00	80.9%	62.1%	58.0%	67.9%	84.1%
2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00	80.9%	47.7%	58.0%	67.9%	84.1%
2026-09-10T03:10:10+00:00	80.9%	47.7%	58.0%	67.9%	84.1%
2026-09-10T03:55:19+00:00	80.9%	47.7%	58.0%	67.9%	84.1%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	80.9%	47.7%	58.0%	67.9%	81.8%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	80.9%	47.7%	52.7%	67.9%	81.8%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	80.9%	47.7%	52.7%	67.9%	81.8%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	80.9%	47.7%	52.7%	67.9%	81.8%
2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00	85.9%	47.7%	52.7%	78.9%	81.8%
2026-09-10T08:26:01+00:00	85.9%	47.7%	52.7%	78.9%	81.8%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	85.9%	47.7%	52.7%	78.9%	81.8%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	85.9%	47.7%	52.7%	78.9%	81.8%
2026-09-10T10:41:14+00:00	85.9%	47.7%	52.7%	78.9%	81.8%
2026-09-10T11:26:20+00:00	85.9%	52.9%	54.8%	78.9%	81.8%
2026-09-10T12:11:27+00:00	85.9%	52.9%	54.8%	78.9%	81.8%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	85.9%	52.9%	54.8%	78.9%	81.8%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	88.4%	52.9%	54.8%	78.9%	81.8%
2026-09-10T14:26:55+00:00	88.4%	52.9%	54.8%	78.9%	82.1%
2026-09-10T15:12:01+00:00	88.4%	52.9%	54.8%	78.9%	82.1%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	88.4%	52.9%	54.8%	78.9%	82.1%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	88.4%	52.9%	54.8%	78.9%	83.9%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	88.4%	52.9%	63.3%	78.9%	83.9%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	88.4%	52.9%	63.3%	78.9%	83.9%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	88.4%	52.9%	63.3%	78.9%	83.9%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	88.8%	52.9%	63.3%	69.6%	83.9%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	88.8%	52.9%	63.3%	69.6%	83.9%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	88.8%	52.9%	63.3%	69.6%	83.9%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	88.8%	52.9%	63.3%	69.6%	83.9%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	88.8%	52.9%	63.3%	69.6%	83.9%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	88.8%	52.9%	64.2%	69.6%	83.9%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	88.8%	52.9%	64.2%	69.6%	83.9%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	88.8%	53.8%	64.2%	69.6%	83.9%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	85.9%	50.0%	64.2%	69.6%	83.9%
2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00	85.9%	50.0%	64.2%	69.6%	83.9%
2026-09-11T03:13:36+00:00	85.9%	50.0%	64.2%	69.6%	83.9%
2026-09-11T03:58:45+00:00	85.9%	50.0%	64.2%	69.6%	83.9%
2026-09-11T04:43:50+00:00	85.9%	50.0%	64.2%	69.6%	71.2%
2026-09-11T05:28:56+00:00	85.9%	50.0%	66.0%	69.6%	71.2%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	85.9%	50.0%	66.0%	69.6%	71.2%
2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00	85.9%	50.0%	66.0%	69.6%	71.2%
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	92.8%	50.0%	66.0%	79.6%	71.2%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	92.8%	50.0%	66.0%	79.6%	71.2%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	92.8%	50.0%	66.0%	79.6%	71.2%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	92.8%	50.0%	66.0%	79.6%	71.2%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	92.8%	50.0%	66.0%	79.6%	71.2%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	92.8%	71.3%	69.7%	79.6%	71.2%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	92.8%	71.3%	69.7%	79.6%	71.2%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	92.8%	71.3%	69.7%	79.6%	71.2%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	69.7%	79.6%	71.2%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	94.4%	75.4%	69.7%	79.6%	71.1%
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	69.7%	79.6%	71.1%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	69.7%	79.6%	71.1%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	69.7%	79.6%	85.3%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	67.9%	79.6%	85.3%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	67.9%	79.6%	85.3%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	67.9%	79.6%	85.3%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	67.9%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	67.9%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	67.9%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	67.9%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	67.9%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	66.9%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	66.9%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	66.9%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	66.9%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	66.9%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	66.9%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	66.9%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	66.9%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	73.2%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	73.2%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	73.2%	94.9%	85.3%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	73.2%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	73.2%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	73.2%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	73.2%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	73.2%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	94.4%	88.2%	70.9%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	94.4%	88.2%	70.9%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	94.4%	88.2%	70.9%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	94.4%	88.2%	70.9%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	94.5%	88.1%	70.9%	76.7%	94.2%
2026-09-12T15:20:09+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	70.9%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	70.9%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	70.9%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	65.0%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	65.0%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	65.0%	83.9%	94.2%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	65.0%	83.9%	92.6%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	65.0%	83.9%	92.6%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	65.0%	83.9%	92.6%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	65.0%	83.9%	92.6%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	65.0%	88.7%	92.6%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	65.0%	88.7%	92.6%
2026-09-13T00:21:25+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	65.0%	88.7%	92.6%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	94.5%	90.8%	65.0%	88.7%	92.6%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	95.2%	90.8%	65.0%	88.7%	92.6%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	95.2%	90.8%	65.0%	88.7%	92.6%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	95.2%	90.8%	65.0%	88.7%	92.6%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	95.2%	90.8%	65.0%	88.7%	92.6%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	95.2%	90.8%	65.0%	88.7%	92.6%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	95.2%	90.8%	65.0%	88.7%	92.6%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	95.2%	90.8%	65.0%	88.7%	92.6%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	95.2%	90.8%	65.0%	88.7%	92.6%
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	97.1%	90.8%	65.0%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	97.1%	90.8%	65.0%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	97.1%	90.8%	65.0%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	97.1%	90.8%	65.0%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	97.1%	97.3%	71.7%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	97.1%	97.3%	71.7%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	97.1%	97.3%	71.7%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	97.1%	97.3%	71.7%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	97.5%	97.2%	71.6%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	97.5%	97.2%	71.6%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	97.5%	97.7%	71.6%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	97.5%	97.7%	71.6%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	97.5%	97.7%	70.6%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	97.5%	97.7%	70.6%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	97.5%	97.7%	70.6%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	97.5%	97.7%	70.6%	95.8%	94.7%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	97.7%	97.7%	70.6%	94.1%	94.7%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	97.7%	97.7%	70.6%	94.1%	94.7%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	97.7%	97.7%	70.6%	94.1%	94.7%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	97.7%	97.7%	70.6%	94.1%	94.7%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	97.7%	97.5%	73.5%	94.1%	94.7%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	97.7%	97.5%	73.5%	94.1%	94.7%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	97.7%	97.5%	73.5%	94.1%	94.7%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	97.7%	97.5%	73.5%	94.1%	94.7%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	97.5%	97.5%	73.5%	94.6%	94.7%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	97.5%	97.5%	73.5%	94.6%	94.7%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	97.5%	97.5%	73.5%	94.6%	94.7%
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	97.5%	97.5%	73.5%	94.1%	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	98%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	98%	96.8°F	2.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	99.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	95%	96.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	95%	97.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	98.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	93.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE92
Opened Sep 08 · 11:09 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 92°F+ · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗