KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 98°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 14 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

62%

47%

23%

21%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.75u

ICONNO 53.2¢Risks 53.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.25u · ICON −53.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	7.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	0.8%	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	8.3%	—	—	11.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	62.6%	—	—	15.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	39.6%	3.8%	—	16.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	6.9%	54.4%	23.7%	—	19.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	33.0%	47.7%	12.9%	—	12.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	28.1%	57.9%	21.8%	—	11.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	5.1%	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	30.0%	55.0%	25.1%	18.4%	12.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	23.3%	61.8%	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	15.1%	67.8%	27.7%	—	20.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	35.9%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	28.9%	67.0%	33.9%	—	31.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	38.8%	65.7%	—	—	19.6%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	47.1%	54.9%	25.5%	—	29.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	45.0%	56.0%	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	41.8%	55.1%	18.3%	0.0%	29.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	45.8%	53.2%	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	52.2%	43.5%	27.3%	—	46.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	50.0%	53.4%	0.0%	—	42.2%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	52.3%	0.0%	6.8%	34.1%	34.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	53.6%	56.0%	6.2%	—	35.9%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.7%	32.0%	53.7%	12.4%	0.0%	52.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	32.5%	51.3%	12.2%	—	43.6%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	39.4%	48.7%	12.7%	40.7%	48.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	52.8%	44.4%	9.2%	—	45.8%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	60.1%	35.8%	15.4%	42.8%	45.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	53.0%	51.5%	6.5%	—	29.8%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	48.4%	65.4%	17.1%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	61.4%	71.9%	21.6%	—	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	100.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	98.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	97.9°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	97.3°F	2.8°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	94.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	21%	94.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 98°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE98
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 98°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗