KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 98°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 14 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

62%

47%

23%

21%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.75u

ICONNO 53.2¢Risks 53.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.25u · ICON −53.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T15:20:09+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	13.6%	37.1%	51.0%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	13.6%	37.1%	51.0%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	13.6%	37.1%	51.0%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	10.3%	37.1%	51.0%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	10.3%	37.1%	51.0%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	10.3%	37.1%	51.0%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	10.3%	37.1%	45.9%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	10.3%	37.1%	45.9%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	10.3%	37.1%	45.9%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	10.3%	37.1%	45.9%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	10.3%	45.6%	45.9%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	10.3%	45.6%	45.9%
2026-09-13T00:21:25+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	10.3%	45.6%	45.9%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	59.8%	18.8%	10.3%	45.6%	45.9%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	62.3%	18.8%	10.3%	45.6%	45.9%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	62.3%	18.8%	10.3%	45.6%	45.9%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	62.3%	18.8%	10.3%	45.6%	45.9%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	62.3%	18.8%	10.3%	45.6%	45.9%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	62.3%	18.8%	10.3%	45.6%	45.9%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	62.3%	18.8%	10.3%	45.6%	45.9%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	62.3%	18.8%	10.3%	45.6%	45.9%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	62.3%	18.8%	10.3%	45.6%	45.9%
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	68.9%	18.8%	10.3%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	68.9%	18.8%	10.3%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	68.9%	18.8%	10.3%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	68.9%	18.8%	10.3%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	68.9%	38.4%	12.6%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	68.9%	38.4%	12.6%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	68.9%	38.4%	12.6%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	68.9%	38.4%	12.6%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	70.6%	38.4%	12.7%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	70.6%	38.4%	12.7%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	70.6%	41.2%	12.7%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	70.6%	41.2%	12.7%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	70.6%	41.2%	12.1%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	70.6%	41.2%	12.1%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	70.6%	41.2%	12.1%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	70.6%	41.2%	12.1%	61.4%	46.6%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	72.2%	41.2%	12.1%	54.8%	46.6%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	72.2%	41.2%	12.1%	54.8%	46.6%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	72.2%	41.2%	12.1%	54.8%	46.6%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	72.2%	41.2%	12.1%	54.8%	46.6%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	72.2%	39.8%	13.9%	54.8%	46.6%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	72.2%	39.8%	13.9%	54.8%	46.6%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	72.2%	39.8%	13.9%	54.8%	46.6%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	72.2%	39.8%	13.9%	54.8%	46.6%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	13.9%	54.9%	46.6%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	13.9%	54.9%	46.6%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	13.9%	54.9%	46.6%
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	13.9%	54.8%	46.6%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	22.9%	54.8%	46.6%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	22.9%	54.8%	46.6%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	22.9%	54.8%	46.6%
2026-09-14T07:11:38+00:00	70.6%	39.8%	22.9%	54.8%	46.6%
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	74.3%	39.8%	22.9%	61.5%	20.7%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	74.3%	39.8%	22.9%	61.5%	20.7%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	74.3%	39.8%	22.9%	61.5%	20.7%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	74.3%	39.8%	22.9%	61.5%	20.7%
2026-09-14T10:57:25+00:00	74.3%	47.2%	22.9%	61.5%	20.7%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	74.3%	47.2%	22.9%	61.5%	20.7%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	74.3%	47.2%	22.9%	61.5%	20.7%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	74.3%	47.2%	22.9%	61.5%	20.7%
2026-09-14T13:57:48+00:00	72.8%	47.2%	22.9%	61.5%	20.7%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	72.8%	47.2%	22.9%	61.5%	20.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	100.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	98.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	97.9°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	97.3°F	2.8°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	94.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	21%	94.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 98°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE98
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 98°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗