KBNA / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Sep 17 · 09:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

36%

28%

25%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 25.1¢Risks 25.05u

ICONNO 75.0¢Risks 74.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +74.95u · ICON −74.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	31.4%	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	5.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	40.7%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	20.2%	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.1%	31.8%	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	14.9%	3.3%	4.5%	14.5%	7.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	7.4%	49.3%	5.7%	—	12.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	10.7%	64.2%	4.4%	—	22.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	31.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	15.9%	52.4%	2.1%	—	17.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	1.6%	41.9%	—	—	19.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	27.9%	49.2%	1.1%	—	20.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	6.4%	49.1%	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	26.9%	2.4%	—	27.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	1.7%	49.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	0.5%	—	20.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	1.3%	59.4%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	5.9%	47.1%	2.1%	—	28.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	24.1%	42.0%	—	—	21.9%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	10.8%	37.8%	0.7%	1.0%	31.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	24.5%	48.9%	—	—	29.8%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	30.1%	44.5%	0.6%	0.9%	27.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	29.6%	48.9%	0.0%	—	20.6%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	24.2%	57.0%	0.4%	—	18.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	19.1%	53.6%	0.2%	—	16.7%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	19.9%	46.3%	1.2%	18.2%	26.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	14.3%	37.3%	0.5%	—	17.4%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	17.3%	39.4%	0.5%	15.7%	15.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	20.1%	36.3%	0.6%	—	12.4%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	19.1%	17.2%	2.3%	10.8%	12.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	12.8%	21.3%	0.9%	—	2.7%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	8.9%	25.0%	2.0%	8.3%	1.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.3%	30.9%	2.8%	—	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	100.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	98.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	98.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	98.0°F	2.6°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	98.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	97.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	8%	94.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗