KBNA / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 98°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Sep 20 · 02:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

52%

36%

30%

16%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.2¢Risks 34.15u

WN2NO 65.8¢Risks 65.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.85u · WN2 −65.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	4.5%	1.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	2.9%	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	8.3%	—	—	4.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	6.5%	—	37.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	12.0%	31.0%	—	40.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	14.6%	—	33.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	16.4%	27.4%	18.9%	—	60.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	7.0%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	48.3%	24.5%	23.8%	—	55.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	17.3%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	26.9%	35.4%	24.1%	—	62.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	36.8%	44.6%	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	37.3%	25.9%	20.3%	—	64.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	37.9%	67.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	68.7%	37.6%	22.5%	—	53.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	68.3%	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	43.9%	53.1%	21.2%	1.5%	40.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	64.5%	30.7%	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	69.9%	43.5%	27.3%	0.7%	53.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	60.0%	24.9%	0.1%	—	36.7%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	58.1%	33.1%	30.0%	16.0%	33.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	63.0%	51.2%	13.9%	—	30.4%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	66.9%	27.6%	18.2%	30.9%	36.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	48.7%	60.2%	24.8%	—	26.9%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	51.3%	44.6%	22.0%	27.3%	17.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	55.6%	30.0%	13.2%	—	28.8%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	50.0%	41.4%	9.5%	25.6%	23.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	51.5%	32.5%	10.5%	—	13.6%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	30.3%	25.0%	6.1%	14.2%	3.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	48.4%	54.9%	13.2%	—	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	60%	98.0°F	2.0°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	97.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	97.6°F	2.6°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	96.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	95.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	93.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 98°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260920-TMAX-GE98
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 98°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗