KBNA / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 98°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Sep 20 · 02:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

52%

36%

30%

16%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.2¢Risks 34.15u

WN2NO 65.8¢Risks 65.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.85u · WN2 −65.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T02:29:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00	52.4%	68.4%	19.3%	59.4%	63.3%
2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00	52.4%	68.4%	19.3%	59.4%	63.3%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00	52.4%	68.4%	20.6%	59.4%	63.3%
2026-09-16T05:51:45+00:00	52.4%	68.4%	20.6%	59.4%	63.3%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00	52.4%	68.4%	20.6%	59.4%	63.3%
2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00	48.3%	68.4%	20.6%	81.2%	37.6%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	48.3%	68.4%	20.6%	81.2%	37.6%
2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00	48.3%	68.4%	20.6%	81.2%	37.6%
2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00	48.3%	68.4%	20.6%	81.2%	37.6%
2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00	48.3%	68.4%	20.6%	81.2%	37.6%
2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00	48.3%	66.8%	20.6%	81.2%	37.6%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	48.3%	66.8%	20.6%	81.2%	37.6%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	48.3%	66.8%	20.6%	81.2%	37.6%
2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00	55.1%	66.8%	20.6%	81.2%	37.6%
2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00	55.1%	66.8%	20.6%	81.3%	37.6%
2026-09-17T02:57:15+00:00	55.9%	75.1%	14.1%	86.1%	50.0%
2026-09-17T03:42:32+00:00	55.9%	75.1%	14.1%	86.1%	50.0%
2026-09-17T04:27:40+00:00	55.9%	75.1%	14.1%	86.1%	73.2%
2026-09-17T05:12:46+00:00	55.9%	75.1%	26.9%	86.1%	73.2%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	55.9%	75.1%	26.9%	86.1%	73.2%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	55.9%	75.1%	26.9%	86.1%	73.2%
2026-09-17T07:28:05+00:00	55.4%	75.1%	26.9%	86.1%	73.2%
2026-09-17T08:13:10+00:00	55.4%	75.1%	26.9%	86.1%	73.2%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	55.4%	75.1%	26.9%	86.1%	73.2%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	55.4%	75.1%	26.9%	86.1%	73.2%
2026-09-17T10:28:36+00:00	55.4%	75.1%	26.9%	58.7%	73.2%
2026-09-17T11:14:04+00:00	55.4%	65.0%	22.2%	58.7%	73.2%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	55.4%	65.0%	22.2%	58.7%	73.2%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	55.4%	65.0%	22.2%	58.7%	73.2%
2026-09-17T13:29:22+00:00	53.6%	65.0%	22.2%	58.7%	73.2%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	53.6%	65.0%	22.2%	58.8%	73.2%
2026-09-17T15:00:48+00:00	53.6%	65.0%	22.2%	58.8%	73.2%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	53.6%	65.0%	22.2%	58.8%	73.2%
2026-09-17T16:31:11+00:00	53.6%	65.0%	22.2%	58.8%	47.9%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	53.6%	65.0%	13.7%	58.8%	47.9%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	53.6%	65.0%	13.7%	58.8%	47.9%
2026-09-17T18:46:33+00:00	53.6%	65.0%	13.7%	58.8%	47.9%
2026-09-17T19:31:38+00:00	49.1%	65.0%	13.7%	58.8%	47.9%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	49.1%	65.0%	13.7%	58.8%	47.9%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	49.1%	65.0%	13.7%	58.8%	47.9%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	49.1%	65.0%	13.7%	58.8%	47.9%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	49.1%	65.0%	13.7%	61.3%	47.9%
2026-09-17T23:17:04+00:00	49.1%	66.6%	16.2%	61.3%	49.0%
2026-09-18T00:02:09+00:00	49.1%	66.6%	16.2%	61.3%	49.0%
2026-09-18T00:47:16+00:00	49.1%	66.6%	16.2%	61.3%	49.0%
2026-09-18T01:32:22+00:00	45.5%	66.6%	16.2%	61.3%	49.0%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	45.5%	66.6%	16.2%	61.3%	49.0%
2026-09-18T03:02:40+00:00	45.5%	66.6%	16.2%	61.3%	49.0%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	45.5%	66.6%	16.2%	61.3%	49.0%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00	45.5%	66.6%	16.2%	61.3%	65.4%
2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:00	45.5%	66.6%	16.2%	61.3%	65.4%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	45.5%	66.6%	16.2%	61.3%	65.4%
2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:00	45.5%	66.6%	16.2%	61.3%	65.4%
2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:00	48.1%	66.6%	16.2%	76.6%	65.4%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	48.1%	66.6%	16.2%	76.6%	65.4%
2026-09-18T09:04:14+00:00	48.1%	66.6%	16.2%	76.6%	65.4%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	48.1%	66.6%	16.2%	76.6%	65.4%
2026-09-18T10:34:35+00:00	48.1%	66.6%	16.2%	76.6%	65.4%
2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00	48.1%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	65.4%
2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:00	48.1%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	65.4%
2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00	48.1%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	65.4%
2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00	42.5%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	65.4%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	41.6%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	65.5%
2026-09-18T15:07:08+00:00	41.6%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	65.5%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	41.6%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	65.5%
2026-09-18T16:37:30+00:00	41.6%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	52.3%
2026-09-18T17:22:36+00:00	41.6%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	52.3%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	41.6%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	52.3%
2026-09-18T18:52:50+00:00	41.6%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	52.3%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	42.5%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	52.3%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	42.5%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	52.3%
2026-09-18T21:08:04+00:00	42.5%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	52.3%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	42.5%	62.1%	16.2%	76.6%	52.3%
2026-09-18T22:38:15+00:00	42.5%	62.1%	16.2%	51.9%	52.3%
2026-09-18T23:23:20+00:00	42.5%	63.4%	16.2%	51.9%	52.3%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	42.5%	63.4%	16.2%	51.9%	52.3%
2026-09-19T00:53:32+00:00	42.5%	63.4%	16.2%	51.9%	52.3%
2026-09-19T01:38:37+00:00	41.5%	63.4%	16.2%	51.9%	52.3%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	41.5%	63.4%	16.2%	51.9%	52.3%
2026-09-19T15:13:00+00:00	40.3%	50.0%	16.3%	53.2%	50.0%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	40.3%	50.0%	16.3%	53.2%	50.0%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	40.3%	50.0%	16.3%	53.2%	35.6%
2026-09-19T17:28:24+00:00	40.3%	50.0%	16.3%	53.2%	35.6%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	40.3%	50.0%	16.3%	53.2%	35.6%
2026-09-19T18:58:38+00:00	40.3%	50.0%	16.3%	53.2%	35.6%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	45.1%	50.0%	16.3%	29.7%	35.6%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	45.1%	50.0%	16.3%	29.7%	35.6%
2026-09-19T21:13:52+00:00	45.1%	50.0%	16.3%	29.7%	35.6%
2026-09-19T21:58:57+00:00	45.1%	50.0%	16.3%	29.7%	35.6%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	45.1%	50.0%	16.3%	29.7%	35.6%
2026-09-19T23:29:08+00:00	45.1%	51.5%	16.3%	29.7%	35.6%
2026-09-20T00:14:13+00:00	45.1%	51.5%	16.3%	29.7%	35.6%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	45.1%	51.5%	16.3%	29.7%	35.6%
2026-09-20T01:44:30+00:00	52.0%	51.5%	16.3%	29.7%	35.6%
2026-09-20T02:29:37+00:00	52.0%	51.5%	16.3%	29.7%	35.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	60%	98.0°F	2.0°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	97.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	97.6°F	2.6°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	96.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	95.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	93.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 98°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260920-TMAX-GE98
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 98°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗