KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 17 · 21:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

13%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.8¢Risks 4.40u

WN2NO 91.2¢Risks 45.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.60u · WN2 −45.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.8%	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	11.2%	0.1%	—	4.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	5.7%	4.4%	—	7.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	6.3%	0.0%	—	3.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.8%	7.2%	0.3%	—	2.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	7.7%	0.0%	—	0.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.8%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	17%	94.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	94.4°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	93.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	8%	91.4°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	92.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	86.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	87.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 15 · 20:04 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗