KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 17 · 21:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

13%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.8¢Risks 4.40u

WN2NO 91.2¢Risks 45.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.60u · WN2 −45.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00	3.7%	23.9%	0.3%	5.9%	13.7%
2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00	3.7%	23.9%	0.3%	5.9%	13.7%
2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00	3.7%	23.9%	0.3%	5.9%	13.7%
2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00	3.7%	23.9%	0.3%	5.9%	13.7%
2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00	3.7%	23.9%	0.9%	7.1%	13.7%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	3.7%	23.9%	0.9%	7.1%	13.7%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	3.7%	23.9%	0.9%	7.1%	13.7%
2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00	3.7%	23.9%	0.9%	7.1%	13.7%
2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00	3.9%	23.9%	0.9%	7.1%	13.7%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00	3.9%	23.9%	0.9%	7.1%	13.7%
2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00	3.9%	23.9%	0.9%	7.1%	13.7%
2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00	3.9%	23.9%	0.9%	7.1%	13.7%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00	3.9%	23.9%	1.2%	7.1%	13.7%
2026-09-16T05:51:45+00:00	3.9%	23.9%	1.2%	7.1%	13.7%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00	3.9%	23.9%	1.2%	7.1%	13.7%
2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00	1.6%	23.9%	1.2%	38.7%	15.8%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	1.6%	23.9%	1.2%	38.7%	15.8%
2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00	1.6%	23.9%	1.2%	38.7%	15.8%
2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00	1.6%	23.9%	1.2%	38.7%	15.8%
2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00	1.6%	23.9%	1.2%	38.7%	15.8%
2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00	1.6%	17.1%	2.1%	38.7%	15.8%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	1.6%	17.1%	2.1%	38.7%	15.8%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	1.6%	17.1%	2.1%	38.7%	15.8%
2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00	0.4%	17.1%	2.1%	38.7%	15.8%
2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00	0.4%	17.1%	2.1%	38.7%	15.9%
2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00	0.4%	17.1%	2.1%	38.7%	15.9%
2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00	0.4%	17.1%	2.1%	38.7%	15.9%
2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00	0.4%	17.1%	2.1%	41.3%	2.7%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	0.4%	17.1%	1.1%	41.3%	2.7%
2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00	0.4%	17.1%	1.1%	41.3%	2.7%
2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00	0.4%	17.1%	1.1%	41.3%	2.7%
2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:00	1.4%	17.1%	1.1%	15.6%	2.7%
2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:00	1.4%	17.1%	1.1%	15.6%	2.7%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00	1.4%	17.1%	1.1%	15.6%	2.7%
2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:00	1.4%	17.1%	1.1%	15.6%	2.7%
2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00	1.4%	17.1%	1.1%	15.6%	2.7%
2026-09-16T23:11:17+00:00	1.4%	20.7%	0.6%	9.5%	2.7%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00	1.4%	20.7%	0.6%	9.5%	2.7%
2026-09-17T00:41:33+00:00	1.4%	20.7%	0.6%	9.5%	2.7%
2026-09-17T01:26:47+00:00	1.1%	20.7%	0.6%	9.5%	2.7%
2026-09-17T02:12:06+00:00	1.1%	20.7%	0.6%	9.5%	2.7%
2026-09-17T02:57:15+00:00	1.1%	20.7%	0.6%	9.5%	2.7%
2026-09-17T03:42:32+00:00	1.1%	20.7%	0.6%	9.5%	2.7%
2026-09-17T04:27:40+00:00	1.1%	20.7%	0.6%	9.5%	8.2%
2026-09-17T05:12:46+00:00	1.1%	20.7%	0.8%	9.5%	8.2%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	1.1%	20.7%	0.8%	9.5%	8.2%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	1.1%	20.7%	0.8%	9.5%	8.2%
2026-09-17T07:28:05+00:00	1.4%	20.7%	0.8%	9.5%	8.2%
2026-09-17T08:13:10+00:00	1.4%	20.7%	0.8%	9.5%	8.2%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	1.4%	20.7%	0.8%	9.5%	8.2%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	1.4%	20.7%	0.8%	9.5%	8.2%
2026-09-17T10:28:37+00:00	1.4%	20.7%	0.8%	17.3%	8.2%
2026-09-17T11:14:04+00:00	1.4%	13.4%	0.5%	17.3%	8.2%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	1.4%	13.4%	0.5%	17.3%	8.2%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	1.4%	13.4%	0.5%	17.3%	8.2%
2026-09-17T13:29:22+00:00	0.5%	13.4%	0.5%	17.3%	8.2%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	0.5%	13.4%	0.5%	17.3%	8.1%
2026-09-17T15:00:48+00:00	0.5%	12.9%	0.5%	17.3%	8.1%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	0.5%	12.9%	0.5%	17.3%	8.1%
2026-09-17T16:31:11+00:00	0.5%	12.9%	0.5%	17.3%	8.4%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	0.5%	12.9%	0.3%	17.3%	8.4%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	0.5%	12.9%	0.3%	17.3%	8.4%
2026-09-17T18:46:33+00:00	0.5%	12.9%	0.3%	17.3%	8.4%
2026-09-17T19:31:38+00:00	0.4%	12.9%	0.3%	17.3%	8.4%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	0.4%	12.9%	0.3%	17.3%	8.4%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	0.4%	12.9%	0.3%	17.3%	8.4%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	0.4%	12.9%	0.3%	17.3%	8.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	17%	94.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	94.4°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	93.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	8%	91.4°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	92.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	86.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	87.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 15 · 20:04 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗