KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Sep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

51%

43%

22%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.3¢Risks 42.30u

ICONNO 57.7¢Risks 57.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.70u · ICON −57.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	43.7%	—	—	21.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	48.0%	—	—	49.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	76.5%	12.6%	—	61.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	7.1%	67.0%	62.3%	—	70.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	15.5%	71.7%	9.3%	—	59.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	54.0%	77.0%	30.1%	—	59.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	40.3%	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	55.0%	81.0%	2.5%	—	44.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	8.8%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	33.8%	62.9%	15.6%	—	26.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	21.5%	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	50.0%	62.7%	1.1%	—	23.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	60.3%	17.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	20.3%	66.1%	4.9%	—	33.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	7.3%	75.9%	—	—	23.4%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	1.1%	37.8%	1.9%	—	19.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	4.2%	39.5%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	19.8%	53.3%	1.1%	—	23.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	17.5%	29.6%	0.1%	—	61.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	19.9%	27.0%	16.0%	30.0%	28.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	2.7%	1.2%	0.9%	—	23.4%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.8%	0.4%	5.9%	1.3%	19.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	16.6%	29.1%	6.0%	—	12.2%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	21.0%	26.2%	3.7%	40.7%	5.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	24.2%	30.0%	5.8%	—	31.2%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	58.6%	33.1%	6.8%	57.2%	33.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	18.1%	51.5%	3.2%	—	9.2%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	16.1%	25.0%	0.4%	27.6%	1.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.7%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	92.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	88.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	88.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	87.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	85.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
ICON	2%	81.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗