KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Sep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

51%

43%

22%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.3¢Risks 42.30u

ICONNO 57.7¢Risks 57.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.70u · ICON −57.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00	58.6%	90.2%	48.3%	62.0%	51.2%
2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00	58.6%	90.2%	48.3%	62.0%	51.2%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00	58.6%	90.2%	51.7%	62.0%	51.2%
2026-09-16T05:51:45+00:00	58.6%	90.2%	51.7%	62.0%	51.2%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00	58.6%	90.2%	51.7%	62.0%	51.2%
2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00	46.3%	90.2%	51.7%	91.5%	73.2%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	46.3%	90.2%	51.7%	91.5%	73.2%
2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00	46.3%	90.2%	51.7%	91.5%	73.2%
2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00	46.3%	90.2%	51.7%	91.5%	73.2%
2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00	46.3%	90.2%	51.7%	91.5%	73.2%
2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00	46.3%	95.8%	66.5%	91.5%	73.2%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	46.3%	95.8%	66.5%	91.5%	73.2%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	46.3%	95.8%	66.5%	91.5%	73.2%
2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00	26.9%	95.8%	66.5%	91.5%	73.2%
2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00	26.8%	95.8%	66.5%	91.5%	73.2%
2026-09-19T15:13:01+00:00	33.3%	82.5%	43.3%	48.2%	22.8%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	33.3%	82.5%	43.3%	48.2%	22.8%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	33.3%	82.5%	43.3%	48.2%	1.5%
2026-09-19T17:28:24+00:00	33.3%	82.5%	43.3%	48.2%	1.5%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	33.3%	82.5%	43.3%	48.2%	1.5%
2026-09-19T18:58:38+00:00	33.3%	82.5%	43.3%	48.2%	1.5%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	47.3%	82.5%	43.3%	26.8%	1.5%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	47.3%	82.5%	43.3%	26.8%	1.5%
2026-09-19T21:13:52+00:00	47.3%	82.5%	43.3%	26.8%	1.5%
2026-09-19T21:58:57+00:00	47.3%	82.5%	43.3%	26.8%	1.5%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	47.3%	82.5%	43.3%	26.8%	1.5%
2026-09-19T23:29:08+00:00	47.3%	83.0%	43.3%	26.8%	1.5%
2026-09-20T00:14:13+00:00	47.3%	83.0%	43.3%	26.8%	1.5%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	47.3%	83.0%	43.3%	26.8%	1.5%
2026-09-20T01:44:30+00:00	44.6%	83.0%	43.3%	26.8%	1.5%
2026-09-20T02:29:37+00:00	44.6%	83.0%	43.3%	26.8%	1.5%
2026-09-20T15:18:48+00:00	48.1%	96.8%	43.3%	52.9%	15.3%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	48.1%	96.8%	43.3%	52.9%	15.3%
2026-09-20T16:49:12+00:00	48.1%	96.8%	43.3%	52.9%	16.7%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	48.1%	96.8%	43.3%	52.9%	16.7%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	48.1%	96.8%	43.3%	52.9%	16.7%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	48.1%	96.8%	43.3%	52.9%	16.7%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	34.3%	96.8%	43.3%	52.9%	16.7%
2026-09-20T20:34:41+00:00	34.3%	96.8%	43.3%	52.9%	16.7%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	34.3%	96.8%	43.3%	52.9%	16.7%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	34.3%	96.8%	43.3%	52.9%	16.7%
2026-09-20T22:49:58+00:00	34.3%	96.8%	43.3%	75.1%	16.7%
2026-09-20T23:35:04+00:00	34.3%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	16.8%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	34.3%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	16.8%
2026-09-21T01:05:23+00:00	34.3%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	16.8%
2026-09-21T01:50:29+00:00	29.2%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	16.8%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	29.2%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	16.8%
2026-09-21T03:20:45+00:00	29.2%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	16.8%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	29.2%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	16.8%
2026-09-21T04:51:09+00:00	29.2%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T05:36:17+00:00	29.2%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T06:21:22+00:00	29.2%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T07:06:30+00:00	29.2%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T07:51:35+00:00	23.9%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	23.9%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	23.9%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	23.9%	97.0%	43.3%	75.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:00	23.9%	97.0%	43.3%	51.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:00	23.9%	83.0%	43.3%	51.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:00	23.9%	83.0%	43.3%	51.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00	23.9%	83.0%	43.3%	51.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00	22.4%	82.9%	43.3%	51.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00	22.4%	82.9%	43.3%	51.1%	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	92.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	88.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	88.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	87.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	85.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
ICON	2%	81.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗