KBNA / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Sep 19 · 10:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

40%

39%

30%

21%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.9¢Risks 32.85u

WN2NO 67.2¢Risks 67.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.15u · WN2 −67.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	36.9%	—	—	24.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	36.4%	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	5.9%	18.0%	—	—	23.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	32.3%	24.1%	6.3%	—	22.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	45.6%	5.5%	14.8%	—	27.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	27.0%	22.2%	11.4%	—	29.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	34.5%	29.5%	15.9%	—	26.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	11.8%	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	33.0%	89.2%	26.5%	—	21.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	13.2%	54.3%	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	50.9%	29.1%	8.3%	—	33.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	50.0%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	25.1%	22.3%	8.6%	—	26.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	9.6%	24.6%	—	—	21.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.7%	10.7%	9.4%	—	11.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.5%	17.0%	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	4.9%	5.2%	11.3%	—	6.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.6%	8.3%	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	0.5%	3.3%	9.9%	—	7.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	0.4%	33.6%	0.0%	—	6.3%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.5%	14.7%	8.1%	—	6.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	0.2%	25.3%	11.9%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.3%	30.9%	8.5%	0.0%	4.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	0.2%	28.0%	8.7%	—	5.6%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	1.1%	3.0%	8.9%	0.0%	2.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	2.1%	5.8%	11.1%	—	1.7%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	1.6%	9.5%	15.4%	0.3%	4.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	3.2%	28.5%	8.0%	—	1.3%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	2.0%	50.0%	8.3%	0.1%	2.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	14.1%	46.7%	11.5%	—	15.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	53%	83.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	81.8°F	5.5°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	81.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	80.8°F	6.2°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	77.4°F	9.8°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	78.1°F	5.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 19 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 83°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗