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KBNA / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Sep 19 · 10:40 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
45%
EPS
40%
HRES
39%
ICON
30%
WN2
21%
Consensus
36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 32.9¢Risks 32.85u
VS
WN2NO 67.2¢Risks 67.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.15u · WN2 −67.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 45.0% · 2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:00AIFS Single: 45.0% · 2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:00AIFS Single: 45.0% · 2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00AIFS Single: 45.0% · 2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00AIFS Single: 45.0% · 2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.0% · 2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.0% · 2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.0% · 2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.0% · 2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.0% · 2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:0009-19 07:3909-19 09:1009-19 10:40
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:0045.0%40.0%20.7%39.2%30.1%
2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:0045.0%40.0%20.7%39.2%30.1%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:0045.0%40.0%20.7%39.2%30.1%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:0045.0%40.0%20.7%39.2%30.1%
2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:0045.0%40.0%20.7%39.2%30.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend53%83.0°F6.5°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single45%81.8°F5.5°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble40%81.5°F4.0°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES39%80.8°F6.2°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
ICON30%77.4°F9.8°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 221%78.1°F5.4°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 19 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 83°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗